How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (11/8-11/14)
26.4median
-850
Median 26.4Middle half 23.2 – 29.6
Install
How many Senators will vote for the American Affordability and Jobs Act? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
The odds
70.7median
5288
Median 70.7Middle half 59.5 – 76.6
How the odds have moved
Median: 69.5 on Oct 20, 70.7 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 56 | 82% | ▲ 7 | 77¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 625 |
| Above 60 | 74% | ▲ 6 | 70¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | 238 |
| Above 64 | 69% | ▲ 6 | 64¢ | 73¢ | $1.37 | 29.00 |
| Above 68 | 61% | ▲ 5 | 57¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | 25.00 |
| Above 72 | 45% | ▲ 4 | 40¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | |
| Above 76 | 28% | ▲ 3 | 23¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | |
| Above 80 | 11% | ▲ 1 | 6¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 2.00 |
| Above 84 | 6% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: American Affordability and Jobs Act, Senators
Search ›- Support the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act | LetterThere’s a new bill being considered in Congress, the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, that deserves support. As we see the climate changing around us — storms strengthening and pollution increasing due to the burning of…
- 500+ Organizations Urge Congress to Pass the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act 500+ Organizations Urge Congress to Pass the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act American Chemistry Council Rail Merger Threatens Economy Chemistry is essential to modern life and to the economic and environmental health of our…
- New Analysis: The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act Would Create up to 105,600 Industrial JobsWe estimate that BAAJA could add up to 105,600 industrial jobs in building and maintaining new generation and transmission, and cheaper energy costs for manufacturing. The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act (BAAJA) would reform…
- LTE: In Support Of Bipartisan American Affordability And Jobs ActLos Alamos Reporter LTE: In Support Of Bipartisan American Affordability And Jobs Act The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act (BAAJA), introduced by New Mexico’s U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich and three senators from both parties…
- Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act (BAAJA) of 2026: Summary of All SectionsNovember 5, 2026 R49506 This report identifies the provisions contained within BAAJA, with abbreviated information about their content and the citations to relevant existing law, where applicable. The bill is organized according to two…
- Bipartisan Senate permitting bill is a 'trap' set by Democrats: Steve MilloyBipartisan Senate permitting reform faces major pushback as lawmakers clash over energy priorities. Steve Milloy joins 'Big Money in the Morning' to analyze the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act. He breaks down the potential…
- SUWA Statement on Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 – 11.3.26November 3, 2026 – FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Here’s just a few ways the bill would impact Southern Utah’s wildest public lands: Analysis and materials by other organizations and recent media: 425 East 100 South Salt Lake City, UT 84111 (801)…
- Estimating the US Energy System Impacts of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs ActWe model key components of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act (BAAJA) and their impacts on the US energy system, electricity prices, and greenhouse gas emissions. The provisions of BAAJA that we modeled deliver consistent…
- Tribal Leaders Oppose Senate Permitting Bill Despite Changes in Substitute AmendmentNational Congress of American Indians President Mark Macarro says revisions to the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 fail to address fundamental concerns about tribal sovereignty and consultation. A bipartisan group of…
- Public Citizen Opposes Senate Permitting Bill %Next week, the U.S. Senate is set to debate and vote on the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 (BAAJA) (S. 5653), a compromise permitting reform deal. Ahead of the planned vote, David Arkush, director of Public…
- On Permitting Reform: How To Talk About BAAJAOur approach brings together rigorous policy research, deep knowledge of the people and places that decide majorities, and sophisticated public opinion and messaging data to create strategic advocacy campaigns designed to persuade elected…
- Voters Most Worried About Power Bills Backed Democrats 2-To-1. Here is What Their Win Means For EnergyThe Democratic sweep of the 2026 midterms has a bipartisan energy permitting deal racing the clock — and it puts President Donald Trump’s nuclear agenda under new overseers. A procedural vote on the deal is set for about 5:30 p.m. on Nov…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions