Recession this year? (2026)
3%chance
Install
Recession in 2027?
The odds
21%chance▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 20% on Oct 20, 21% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 21% | ▼ 1 | 20¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 975.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: recession
Search ›- If a Recession Hits in 2027, This Is the Dividend Stock I Want to OwnIt's not the name you'd usually expect from this particular business either. As of the beginning of this year, the economy looked fine. Lingering inflation was annoying, but manageable. AI technology stocks were performing because they…
- France to dodge threat of year-end recession, central bank saysPARIS, Nov 9 (Reuters) - France is on course to avoid a recession in the final quarter of the year with business executives expecting activity to accelerate in November, the central bank said on Monday. The euro zone's second-biggest…
- Will a Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hike Trigger a Recession? Here's What History Says.Trading activity implies a 70% probability that the federal funds rate will be higher before year-end. After its meeting that ended Oct. 28, the Federal Reserve decided to leave its federal funds rate unchanged. This comes after it raised…
- The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal IncomeReal personal income excluding transfer receipts decreased by 0.31% in September. Read more here. - Real personal income excluding transfer receipts decreased by 0.31% in September. - Real personal income year-over-year is at or below the…
- Opinion | You can thank Trump for the recessionRobert Kuttner, coeditor of The American Prospect, teaches at Brandeis University Heller School. This week, Trump refused to rule out a recession and doubled down on his commitment to tariffs. Other presidents have had to deal with…
- Charles Payne warns of possible recession as AI stocks plunge after midtermsFOX Business anchor Charles Payne analyzes the massive technology and AI sell-off that rattled Wall Street after the midterm elections on 'Special Report.' Charles Payne warns of possible recession as AI stocks plunge after midterms FOX…
- Kalshi's recession odds hit a record low near 0% for 2026As seen on the 24/7 Wall St. homepage on November 8, 2026. Real-money traders now price a 2026 recession at effectively zero, a record low, which leaves cyclicals and rate-cut bets priced for a soft landing that has to actually show up…
- Procter & Gamble's Dividend Has Survived 26 Recessions. Here's What $10,000 Now Earns in Yearly Dividend Income.P&G has paid a dividend through 26 recessions and raised it for 70 straight years. Here's what $10,000 earns today, and why the streak looks safe. All of this is not a marketing line. It is the closest thing the stock market has to a…
- Jim Paulsen on why he thinks AI stocks falling could help economy avoid recessionCNBC Jim Paulsen on why he thinks AI stocks falling could help economy avoid recession
- The Big Four Recession Indicators: EmploymentNonfarm payroll employment added 165,000 jobs in October, above the forecast of adding 65,000 jobs. - Nonfarm payroll employment added 165,000 jobs in October, above the forecast of adding 65,000 jobs. - The unemployment rate decreased to…
- This Dividend King Has Raised Its Payout Through Every Recession Since the 1950s. I'm Buying Before the End of the Year.Procter & Gamble's dividend increase is one of the longest among U.S. companies and hasn't been interrupted by 10 recessions. It might be difficult for some of us, but think about the 1950s for a moment. Specifically, the year 1955. What's…
- ‘Hard to recover the investment’: Gita Gopinath warns $1 trillion AI bet could correct, flags US recession riskGita Gopinath has warned that the AI investment boom could eventually face a market correction, as companies may struggle to generate enough profits to recover the $1 trillion being poured into the technology in 2026 alone. AI has emerged…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions