NC-03 House winner?
86%Raymond Smith Jr.
- Raymond Smith Jr.86%▲ 1
- Greg Murphy14%▼ 2
Install
Reddest House district to elect a Democrat in 2026?
The odds
21.0median
035
Median 21.0Middle half 18.2 – 23.2
How the odds have moved
Median: 21.2 on Oct 19, 21.0 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump +5 or more | 100% | 99¢ | 3.4K | |||
| Trump +10 or more | 100% | 99¢ | 8.6K | |||
| Trump +15 or more | 100% | 99¢ | 16.0K | |||
| Trump +20 or more | 61% | 61¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 9.4K | |
| Trump +25 or more | 5% | 2¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 16.0K | |
| Trump +30 or more | 2% | ▼ 3 | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 28.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Reddest House, Democrat
Search ›- Democrats on pace to regain control of U.S. HouseAs President Trump and Vice President JD Vance travel across the country to make their closing arguments and turn out Republicans, Democrats are hoping to take control of the House thanks to concerns over the economy. Democrats on pace to…
- Exclusive / Democrats see Trump ‘rescue mission’ in MississippiBoth parties remain skeptical that Democrats can win Mississippi’s Senate race, but there are signs it’s competitive. Some Democrats are trying to temper soaring expectations in the battle for the Senate â but they also canât help but…
- High gas prices could put Texas in play for DemocratsWith the midterms just over a week away, many Texas voters are expressing concerns about high costs, especially for gas. Those concerns are leading some to believe James Talarico has a shot at becoming the first Democrat elected statewide…
- Democrats want to extend Obamacare credits. Republicans have other ideas.Democrats are racing to negotiate an agreement on extending Affordable Care Act tax credits with little indication Republicans will get on board. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) speaks with reporters at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, on Nov…
- Electric vehicle tax credits losing their luster for DemocratsPresident Donald Trump’s attacks on Biden-era electric vehicle policy is hampering Democrats’ ambitions to bring back buyer incentives. Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) says Democrats need to weigh the future of EV tax credits. | Francis…
- Andrews Chances of Defeating Graham as Former GOP Governor Backs DemocratOct 26, 2026 at 05:09 PM EDT Republican former South Carolina Governor David Beasley has crossed party lines to endorse Democrat Annie Andrews in her U.S. Senate race against Senator Darline Graham, giving Andrews a prominent GOP supporter…
- Banks Get Warning About What Could Happen if Democrats Win MidtermsOct 26, 2026 at 04:45 PM EDT Some of America’s biggest banks are being told to preserve records involving Russian diesel as senior Democrats prepare for investigations that could begin if next week’s midterm elections shift control of…
- New poll shows why Democrats, Republicans are voting in the midterm electionsCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. New poll on why…
- Blue states like New York might dash Democrats’ Blue Wave dreamsCould blue states like New York turn out to be the seawall standing in the way of this year’s much-anticipated Blue Wave? It’s not just a pipe dream. The paradox is this: Nationally, polls show voters are dissatisfied with the…
- Watch: BBC asks Democrat El-Sayed about tight Michigan Senate raceMichigan is one of the key races Democrats need to win if the party is to take control of the US Senate after the midterm elections on 3 November. With President Donald Trump's approval near record lows and voters frustrated by the high…
- Ex-South Carolina governors endorse Democrat Annie Andrews in Senate raceRepublican and Democrat come together for a rare joint endorsement of candidate in unexpected competitive race Two South Carolina former governors, David Beasley and Jim Hodges, a Republican and Democrat respectively, have come together…
- Democrats Drop Major Report on Trump’s Alleged Ties to Epstein CrimesOct 26, 2026 at 12:36 PM EDT House Judiciary Committee Democrats released a report Monday calling for an independent special counsel to investigate President Donald Trump’s relationship with the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, arguing…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions