How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?

Kalshi Elections › House Closes Jan 3, 2027 · $3 today · $2K traded · $1.1K at stake · prices read 53 min ago

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The odds

1%At least 182
178238

How the odds have moved

At least 182: 93% on Oct 20, 1% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 4, 9 PM ETAt least 182: 22% → 2%
  2. Oct 29, 11 PM ETAt least 182: 90% → 83%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
At least 182 1% 2¢ $50.00 18.5K
At least 186 1% 2¢ $50.00 21.9K
At least 190 1% 2¢ $50.00 36.6K
At least 194 1% 1¢ $100.00 18.2K
At least 198 1% 1¢ $100.00 16.3K
At least 202 1% 1¢ $100.00 9.5K
At least 206 1% 1¢ $100.00 12.7K
At least 210 1% 1¢ $100.00 9.4K
At least 214 1% 1¢ $100.00 13.6K
At least 218 1% 1¢ $100.00 20.0K
At least 222 1% 1¢ $100.00 8.1K
At least 226 1% 1¢ $100.00 5.7K
At least 230 1% 1¢ $100.00 3.8K
At least 234 1% 1¢ $100.00 7.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: U.S. House, House, Midterms

Search ›
  • Missouri U.S. House Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsNBC News · 40 h agoThe expected vote is the total number of votes that are expected in a given race once all votes are counted. This number is an estimate and is based on several different factors, including information ... After a historic wave of…
  • Kansas U.S. House Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsNBC News · 3 days agoThe expected vote is the total number of votes that are expected in a given race once all votes are counted. This number is an estimate and is based on several different factors, including information ... After a historic wave of…
  • Kentucky U.S. House Election Live Results 2026AP News · 3 days agoAP News Kentucky U.S. House results: AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics…
  • Montana U.S. House Election Live Results 2026AP News · 3 days agoAP News Montana U.S. House results: AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics…
  • Iowa U.S. House Election Live Results 2026AP News · 3 days agoAP News Iowa U.S. House results: AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics…
  • New Hampshire U.S. House Election Live Results 2026AP News · 3 days agoAP News New Hampshire U.S. House results: AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and…
  • Georgia U.S. House Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsNBC News · 3 days agoThe expected vote is the total number of votes that are expected in a given race once all votes are counted. This number is an estimate and is based on several different factors, including information ... After a historic wave of…
  • Democrat Nancy Lacore wins election to U.S. House in South Carolina's 1st Congressional DistrictThe Washington Post · 3 days agoThe Washington Post Democrat Nancy Lacore won election Friday to the U.S. House of Representatives representing South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, defeating Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt
  • U.S. House Elections 2026 Live Results: Democrats Win ControlNBC News · 3 days agoFollow real-time U.S. House election results during the 2026 midterms. See outcomes by state or district, and track which party is leading the House majority race. Trump signed a proclamation today to designate the Oval Office and the…
  • Arizona U.S. House Election Live Results 2026AP News · 4 days agoAP News Arizona U.S. House results: AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics…
  • Idaho U.S. House Election Live Results 2026AP News · 4 days agoAP News Idaho U.S. House results: AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics…
  • South Carolina U.S. House Election Live Results 2026AP News · 4 days agoAP News South Carolina U.S. House results: AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions