How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?

Kalshi Politics › Congress Closes Jan 3, 2027 · $65 today · $3.5K traded · $1.6K at stake · prices read 32 min ago

Embed

The odds

4%At least 14
1316

How the odds have moved

At least 14: 90% on Oct 20, 4% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 4, 11 PM ETAt least 14: 90% → 11%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
At least 14 4% ▲ 1 3¢ 5¢ $20.00 36.8K
At least 15 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 21.8K
At least 16 2% ▲ 2 $50.00 16.8K
At least 17 1% ▲ 1 $100.00 9.2K
At least 18 1% ▲ 1 $100.00 9.2K
At least 19 1% ▲ 1 $100.00 9.3K
At least 20 5% ▲ 5 $20.00 6.2K
At least 21 3% ▲ 2 $33.33 7.2K
At least 22 6% ▲ 5 $16.67 7.2K
At least 23 1% $100.00 9.8K
At least 24 1% ▼ 1 $100.00 396
At least 25 1% ▼ 1 $100.00 1.3K
At least 26 4% ▲ 3 $25.00 9.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: U.S. Senate, Senate, Midterms

Search ›
  • Mississippi U.S. Senate resultsAP News · 5 days agoLive results for the 2026 Mississippi U.S. Senate general election. Track election results with real-time vote counts, county-level maps and race calls from AP. Mississippi U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits…
  • Alaska U.S. Senate resultsAP News · 5 days agoAlaska U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026 AP News Alaska U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night…
  • Louisiana U.S. Senate resultsAP News · 5 days agoLive results for the 2026 Louisiana U.S. Senate general election. Track election results with real-time vote counts, county-level maps and race calls from AP. Louisiana U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for…
  • Georgia U.S. Senate resultsAP News · 5 days agoGeorgia U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026 AP News Georgia U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night…
  • El-Sayed makes history as first Muslim elected to U.S. SenateCNN · 4 days agoCNN El-Sayed makes history as first Muslim elected to U.S. Senate Arab American Institute President James Zogby discusses Senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed's historic win in Michigan and the impact of the GOP's anti-Arab and anti-Muslim…
  • Idaho U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026AP News · 5 days agoAP News Idaho U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics…
  • Massachusetts U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026AP News · 5 days agoAP News Massachusetts U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and…
  • Oregon U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026AP News · 5 days agoAP News Oregon U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics…
  • There’s No Need to Appoint Pete Hegseth to the U.S. SenateNational Review · 4 days agoNational Review
  • Tennessee U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026AP News · 5 days agoAP News Tennessee U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and…
  • Rhode Island U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026AP News · 5 days agoAP News Rhode Island U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and…
  • South Dakota U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026AP News · 5 days agoAP News South Dakota U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and…

Related markets

All congress ›

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions