Will SCOTUS reject a benchmark requirement for ERISA fund-underperformance claims? (Before Aug 1, 2028)
12%chance
Install
Will SCOTUS bar Watanabe’s Bivens medical-care claim? (Before Aug 1, 2028)
The odds
83%chance▲ 8
How the odds have moved
Yes: 75% on Oct 19, 83% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 83% | ▲ 8 | 79¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | 819 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Supreme Court, Watanabe’s Bivens, SCOTUS
Search ›- Schumer vows to block ‘right-winger’ Supreme Court nomineesWashington Examiner Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) on Thursday pledged to block Supreme Court nominees on a partisan basis whom President Donald Trump could seek to appoint. A vacancy on the Supreme Court in the next two…
- Democrats eye Supreme Court reforms after the midtermsCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Democrats eye…
- Trump will be blocked from putting ‘rightwinger’ on supreme court, Schumer saysAfter midterm wins, Democratics plan comeback for when new Congress is sworn in, including pushback against Trump and his policies Donald Trump will be blocked from putting a “rightwinger” on the US supreme court, according to Chuck…
- DOJ launches criminal probe into 2022 Supreme Court abortion ruling leakFox News DOJ launches criminal probe into 2022 Supreme Court abortion ruling leak Fox News contributor Jonathan Turley discusses the reported DOJ criminal investigation into the 2022 leak of the Supreme Court's draft opinion overturning…
- Supreme Court Under Criminal Probe by Trump’s DOJNov 05, 2026 at 02:47 PM EST The Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into the 2022 leak of the Supreme Court draft opinion that ultimately overturned Roe v. Wade, reviving scrutiny of one of the most consequential…
- DOJ launches criminal investigation into leak of Supreme Court's Roe v. Wade draft opinionFox News DOJ launches criminal investigation into leak of Supreme Court's Roe v. Wade draft opinion Attorney Alex Swoyer joins 'Fox & Friends First' to discuss the Justice Department's criminal investigation into the 2022 leak of the…
- Democrats could dust off plans for Supreme Court reforms after capturing House and SenateNovember 6, 2026 / 6:00 AM EST / CBS News Washington — After years of calling for reforms to the Supreme Court following blockbuster decisions on abortion, presidential power and voting rights, Democrats may be poised to push forward with…
- Surprise twist ricochets through Supreme Court case on AR-15 banA blockbuster Supreme Court appeal challenging a ban on AR-15-style semi-automatic rifles may be thrown into disarray by a mysterious request to remove the lead plaintiff from the case, a puzzling twist that prompted the ban’s defenders to…
- Republicans rammed through Supreme Court nominees. Now Democrats will have the votes to stop themThe Washington Post President Donald Trump has transformed the Supreme Court with a conservative supermajority, but he now faces a Democratic-led Senate ready to challenge his judicial picks WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump led a…
- Supreme Court urged to protect homeowners’ property rights in data center power fightWashington Examiner A group of Maryland property owners are urging the Supreme Court to get involved in a property rights fight over the potential construction of power lines amid a data center boom in the region. Data center development…
- Montana votes to ban corporate political money. Next stop? Probably the Supreme CourtImagine a corporation wants to spend $10 million to defeat a political candidate. Under the Supreme Court's landmark 2010 Citizens United ruling, it can spend as much as it wants provided it doesn't coordinate with the candidate's…
- DOJ opens investigation into leak of Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe v. WadeFox News DOJ opens investigation into leak of Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe v. Wade Fox News correspondent David Spunt has the latest on the DOJ launching a federal investigation into the 2022 leak of the Supreme Court's draft…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions