Will SCOTUS reject a benchmark requirement for ERISA fund-underperformance claims? (Before Aug 1, 2028)
12%chance
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Will SCOTUS bar unpled affirmative defenses at summary judgment? (Before Aug 1, 2028)
The odds
77%chance▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 56% on Oct 19, 77% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 3, 9 PM ET70% → 77%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 77% | ▼ 1 | 72¢ | 81¢ | $1.23 | 1.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Supreme Court, SCOTUS
Search ›- Supreme Court tosses Wisconsin state legislative maps but keeps congressional maps in placeUpdated on: March 23, 2022 / 6:22 PM EDT / CBS News The U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday tossed out state legislative maps in Wisconsin that were drawn by Democratic Governor Tony Evers, but it left in place the governor's congressional…
- Supreme Court set to pare back federal inmates’s ability to sue officialsWASHINGTON — The Supreme Court on Monday appeared likely to bar prison inmates from suing officials who deny them medical treatment in the latest case seeking to roll back the ability to hold federal officials accountable for alleged…
- Supreme Court weighs effort to shield federal law enforcement as ICE complaints riseThe Supreme Court is seen on Oct. 1 in Washington, D.C. J. Scott Applewhite/AP hide caption Five years ago, a gang riot broke out inside a federal prison in Hawaii. Kekai Watanabe was beaten with a makeshift weapon known as a "lock in a…
- Supreme Court sides with parents who objected to kids' books on gender identity, sexualityUpdated on: June 27, 2025 / 4:04 PM EDT / CBS News Washington — The Supreme Court on Friday ruled in favor of a group of Maryland parents who challenged their school district's decision to deny them the ability to opt their elementary-aged…
- Supreme Court hears social media cases that could reshape how Americans interact onlineUpdated on: February 26, 2024 / 3:51 PM EST / CBS News Washington — The Supreme Court heard arguments Monday in a pair of social media cases that could transform online speech. The two cases concern disputes over Republican-backed laws in…
- Supreme Court casts doubt on Trump's order to end birthright citizenshipUpdated on: April 1, 2026 / 7:42 PM EDT / CBS News Washington — The Supreme Court on Wednesday appeared skeptical of President Trump's bid to end birthright citizenship, hearing arguments in a high-stakes case that tests one of the pillars…
- Supreme Court’s trend on church and state is a reminder conservatives have a steady grip on the nation’s lawsThe Supreme Court first agreed to hear the case that launched the justices’ current trajectory protecting the free exercise of religion in January 2016. But after Justice Antonin Scalia suddenly died the next month, creating a possible 4-4…
- Democrats eye Supreme Court reforms after the midtermsCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Democrats eye…
- Schumer vows to block ‘right-winger’ Supreme Court nomineesWashington Examiner Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) on Thursday pledged to block Supreme Court nominees on a partisan basis whom President Donald Trump could seek to appoint. A vacancy on the Supreme Court in the next two…
- Trump will be blocked from putting ‘rightwinger’ on supreme court, Schumer saysAfter midterm wins, Democratics plan comeback for when new Congress is sworn in, including pushback against Trump and his policies Donald Trump will be blocked from putting a “rightwinger” on the US supreme court, according to Chuck…
- Justice Alito calls Supreme Court LEAK a 'grave breach of trust'U.S. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito describes the Roe v. Wade draft decision leak as a 'grave breach of trust.' Stuart Varney hosts as David Spunt reports on the ongoing Department of Justice criminal investigation. Justice Alito calls…
- DOJ launches criminal probe into 2022 Supreme Court abortion ruling leakFox News DOJ launches criminal probe into 2022 Supreme Court abortion ruling leak Fox News contributor Jonathan Turley discusses the reported DOJ criminal investigation into the 2022 leak of the Supreme Court's draft opinion overturning…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions