Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
12%December 31
- June 30, 202712%▲ 1
- December 3112%
Install
Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends? (Before Jan 2029)
The odds
5%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 7% on Oct 19, 5% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 2¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | 10.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Supreme Court, Amendment
Search ›- Supreme Court casts doubt on Trump's order to end birthright citizenshipUpdated on: April 1, 2026 / 7:42 PM EDT / CBS News Washington — The Supreme Court on Wednesday appeared skeptical of President Trump's bid to end birthright citizenship, hearing arguments in a high-stakes case that tests one of the pillars…
- Trump will be blocked from putting ‘rightwinger’ on supreme court, Schumer saysAfter midterm wins, Democratics plan comeback for when new Congress is sworn in, including pushback against Trump and his policies Donald Trump will be blocked from putting a “rightwinger” on the US supreme court, according to Chuck…
- Democrats eye Supreme Court reforms after the midtermsCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Democrats eye…
- Schumer vows to block ‘right-winger’ Supreme Court nomineesWashington Examiner Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) on Thursday pledged to block Supreme Court nominees on a partisan basis whom President Donald Trump could seek to appoint. A vacancy on the Supreme Court in the next two…
- Supreme Court Under Criminal Probe by Trump’s DOJNov 05, 2026 at 02:47 PM EST The Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into the 2022 leak of the Supreme Court draft opinion that ultimately overturned Roe v. Wade, reviving scrutiny of one of the most consequential…
- DOJ launches criminal probe into 2022 Supreme Court abortion ruling leakFox News DOJ launches criminal probe into 2022 Supreme Court abortion ruling leak Fox News contributor Jonathan Turley discusses the reported DOJ criminal investigation into the 2022 leak of the Supreme Court's draft opinion overturning…
- DOJ launches criminal investigation into leak of Supreme Court's Roe v. Wade draft opinionFox News DOJ launches criminal investigation into leak of Supreme Court's Roe v. Wade draft opinion Attorney Alex Swoyer joins 'Fox & Friends First' to discuss the Justice Department's criminal investigation into the 2022 leak of the…
- Democrats could dust off plans for Supreme Court reforms after capturing House and SenateNovember 6, 2026 / 6:00 AM EST / CBS News Washington — After years of calling for reforms to the Supreme Court following blockbuster decisions on abortion, presidential power and voting rights, Democrats may be poised to push forward with…
- Supreme Court’s trend on church and state is a reminder conservatives have a steady grip on the nation’s lawsThe Supreme Court first agreed to hear the case that launched the justices’ current trajectory protecting the free exercise of religion in January 2016. But after Justice Antonin Scalia suddenly died the next month, creating a possible 4-4…
- Surprise twist ricochets through Supreme Court case on AR-15 banA blockbuster Supreme Court appeal challenging a ban on AR-15-style semi-automatic rifles may be thrown into disarray by a mysterious request to remove the lead plaintiff from the case, a puzzling twist that prompted the ban’s defenders to…
- Republicans rammed through Supreme Court nominees. Now Democrats will have the votes to stop themThe Washington Post President Donald Trump has transformed the Supreme Court with a conservative supermajority, but he now faces a Democratic-led Senate ready to challenge his judicial picks WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump led a…
- Montana votes to ban corporate political money. Next stop? Probably the Supreme CourtImagine a corporation wants to spend $10 million to defeat a political candidate. Under the Supreme Court's landmark 2010 Citizens United ruling, it can spend as much as it wants provided it doesn't coordinate with the candidate's…
Related markets
All supreme court & courts ›What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?
7%Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists
- Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists7%▼ 1
- Republican National Committee v. Eakin6%▼ 2
- Duncan v. Bonta6%
5 more
- Buenrostro-Mendez v. Blanche4%
- Norfolk Southern Railway v. Mallory4%▼ 1
- Bird v. Iowa Migrant Movement for Justice3%
- Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America v. O’Day3%
- Khalid Shaikh Mohammad v. United States2%
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term? (Jan 20, 2029)
75%6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals
- 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals75%▲ 6
- Not nine justices16%▼ 1
- 7 Conservatives and 2 Liberals9%
2 more
- 9 Conservatives and 0 Liberals1%
- 8 Conservatives and 1 Liberals1%
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
9%December 31
- October 31<1%▼ 1
- December 319%▼ 5
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
25%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar25%▼ 1
- John Brennan12%▲ 1
- Miles Taylor9%▲ 1
40 more
- Dan J. Sullivan8%
- Peter Strzok7%
- Fani Willis7%
- Leon Black7%
- James Clapper6%▼ 2
- Letitia James6%▼ 1
- Hunter Biden6%
- Andrew Weissmann6%▼ 1
- Reid Hoffman6%
- Cassidy Hutchinson6%▲ 1
- Keith Ellison5%
- Anthony Fauci5%
- Kimberly Guilfoyle5%▼ 2
- Adam Schiff5%
- Lisa Monaco5%
- Joe Kent4%
- Jack Smith4%
- Chris Krebs4%
- Gustavo Petro4%
- Tim Walz4%
- Elissa Slotkin4%
- Christopher Wray4%▼ 1
- Jacob Frey4%
- Gavin Newsom4%
- Jennifer Siebel Newsom4%▲ 1
- Liz Cheney3%▼ 1
- Mark Milley3%
- Bill Clinton3%
- Alvin Bragg3%
- E. Jean Carroll3%
- Chris Christie2%
- Hillary Clinton2%
- Lisa Cook2%
- Tucker Carlson2%
- Mark Kelly2%
- Pam Bondi2%
- Barack Obama2%
- George Soros2%
- Jerome Powell1%
- Joe Biden1%
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
28%chance
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions