Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
12%December 31
- June 30, 202712%▲ 1
- December 3112%
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New Supreme Court justice confirmed? (Before Jan 21, 2029)
The odds
34%Before Jan 21, 2029
- Before Jan 21, 202934%▼ 3
- Before 202820%▼ 2
- Before June 202712%
- Before 20276%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 21, 2029: 56% on Oct 20, 34% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 4, 11 PM ETBefore Jan 21, 2029: 55% → 40%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 21, 2029 | 34% | ▼ 3 | 29¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 3.4K |
| Before 2028 | 20% | ▼ 2 | 18¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 5.2K |
| Before June 2027 | 12% | 9¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 13.7K | |
| Before 2027 | 6% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | 6¢ | $16.13 | 236.7K |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 17.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Supreme Court, New Supreme Court
Search ›- ZALAMEDA IS NEW SUPREME COURT CHIEF JUSTICEJournal Daily News Online PRESIDENT Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. has appointed Associate Justice Rodil V. Zalameda as the new Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. CJ Zalameda succeeds Chief Justice Alexander G. Gesmundo, who retires on November…
- Zalameda appointed Philippines' new Supreme Court chief justiceMANILA: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has appointed Supreme Court Associate Justice Rodil V. Zalameda as the country's next chief justice, Presidential Communications Office Secretary Lino Cayetano announced on Thursday. He…
- Marcos appoints Rodil Zalameda as new Supreme Court chief justicePresident Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has appointed Supreme Court Associate Justice Rodil Zalameda as the country’s new chief justice, replacing Alexander Gesmundo, who is set to retire on Nov. 6. Presidential Communications Office Acting…
- Supreme Court casts doubt on Trump's order to end birthright citizenshipUpdated on: April 1, 2026 / 7:42 PM EDT / CBS News Washington — The Supreme Court on Wednesday appeared skeptical of President Trump's bid to end birthright citizenship, hearing arguments in a high-stakes case that tests one of the pillars…
- Somalia: Somali President Appoints New Supreme Court Chief, Dismisses Baashe Yusuf AhmedMogadishu — Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has dismissed Supreme Court Chief Justice Dr. Baashe Yusuf Ahmed and appointed lawyer Ibrahim Idle Suleiman as his replacement, the presidency announced. In a statement, the presidency…
- Texas’ new Supreme Court will have Democrats for first time in yearsPublished 5:38 am Thursday, November 5, 2026 By Kevin Krause, The Dallas Morning News The Texas Supreme Court, with all nine of its seats filled by Republican justices for many years, will have a very different make-up beginning next year…
- GOP’s losses will raise pressure on conservative Supreme Court justices to retireBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The lame-duck session…
- Democrats eye Supreme Court reforms after the midtermsCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Democrats eye…
- Schumer vows to block ‘right-winger’ Supreme Court nomineesWashington Examiner Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) on Thursday pledged to block Supreme Court nominees on a partisan basis whom President Donald Trump could seek to appoint. A vacancy on the Supreme Court in the next two…
- Trump will be blocked from putting ‘rightwinger’ on supreme court, Schumer saysAfter midterm wins, Democratics plan comeback for when new Congress is sworn in, including pushback against Trump and his policies Donald Trump will be blocked from putting a “rightwinger” on the US supreme court, according to Chuck…
- DOJ launches criminal probe into 2022 Supreme Court abortion ruling leakFox News DOJ launches criminal probe into 2022 Supreme Court abortion ruling leak Fox News contributor Jonathan Turley discusses the reported DOJ criminal investigation into the 2022 leak of the Supreme Court's draft opinion overturning…
- DOJ launches criminal investigation into leak of Supreme Court's Roe v. Wade draft opinionFox News DOJ launches criminal investigation into leak of Supreme Court's Roe v. Wade draft opinion Attorney Alex Swoyer joins 'Fox & Friends First' to discuss the Justice Department's criminal investigation into the 2022 leak of the…
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All supreme court & courts ›What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?
7%Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists
- Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists7%▼ 1
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What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term? (Jan 20, 2029)
75%6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals
- 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals75%▲ 6
- Not nine justices16%▼ 1
- 7 Conservatives and 2 Liberals9%
2 more
- 9 Conservatives and 0 Liberals1%
- 8 Conservatives and 1 Liberals1%
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
9%December 31
- October 31<1%▼ 1
- December 319%▼ 5
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
25%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar25%▼ 1
- John Brennan12%▲ 1
- Miles Taylor9%▲ 1
40 more
- Dan J. Sullivan8%
- Peter Strzok7%
- Fani Willis7%
- Leon Black7%
- James Clapper6%▼ 2
- Letitia James6%▼ 1
- Hunter Biden6%
- Andrew Weissmann6%▼ 1
- Reid Hoffman6%
- Cassidy Hutchinson6%▲ 1
- Keith Ellison5%
- Anthony Fauci5%
- Kimberly Guilfoyle5%▼ 2
- Adam Schiff5%
- Lisa Monaco5%
- Joe Kent4%
- Jack Smith4%
- Chris Krebs4%
- Gustavo Petro4%
- Tim Walz4%
- Elissa Slotkin4%
- Christopher Wray4%▼ 1
- Jacob Frey4%
- Gavin Newsom4%
- Jennifer Siebel Newsom4%▲ 1
- Liz Cheney3%▼ 1
- Mark Milley3%
- Bill Clinton3%
- Alvin Bragg3%
- E. Jean Carroll3%
- Chris Christie2%
- Hillary Clinton2%
- Lisa Cook2%
- Tucker Carlson2%
- Mark Kelly2%
- Pam Bondi2%
- Barack Obama2%
- George Soros2%
- Jerome Powell1%
- Joe Biden1%
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
28%chance
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions