Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
12%December 31
- June 30, 202712%▲ 1
- December 3112%
Install
Who will be the next Supreme Court justice? (By January 20, 2029)
The odds
6%Ted Cruz
- Ted Cruz6%▼ 1
- Andrew Oldham5%
- Mike Lee4%
- Michael Park3%
- D. John Sauer3%▲ 1
- Emil Bove2%
- James Ho2%
- Neomi Rao1%
- Amul Thapar1%
- Aileen Cannon1%
- Kathryn Mizelle1%
- Lawrence VanDyke1%
29 more
- Patrick Bumatay1%
- Allison Jones Rushing1%
- Tom Cotton1%
- Kenneth Lee1%
- Barbara Lagoa1%
- Ron DeSantis1%
- Yaakov Roth1%
- Anna St. John1%
- Steven Menashi1%
- Matthew Schwartz1%
- Eric Tung1%
- Kevin Newsom<1%
- David Stras<1%
- Gregory G. Katsas<1%
- Matthew Kacsmaryk<1%
- Trevor McFadden<1%
- Clint Bolick<1%
- Kevin Brobson<1%
- Britt Grant<1%
- Allison Eid<1%
- Evan Young<1%
- Joan Larsen<1%
- Kate Comerford Todd<1%
- Patrick Wyrick<1%
- Kristen Waggoner<1%
- Morse Tan<1%
- Mark Martin<1%
- Stephanos Bibas<1%
- Stuart Kyle Duncan<1%
How the odds have moved
Ted Cruz: 9% on Oct 20, 6% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Cruz | 6% | ▼ 1 | 5¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 51.5K |
| Andrew Oldham | 5% | 3¢ | 7¢ | $13.89 | 44.0K | |
| Mike Lee | 4% | 2¢ | 6¢ | $16.95 | 26.4K | |
| Michael Park | 3% | 3¢ | 3¢ | $29.41 | 17.2K | |
| D. John Sauer | 3% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 21.4K |
| Emil Bove | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $41.67 | 18.0K | |
| James Ho | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $32.26 | 34.1K | |
| Neomi Rao | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $66.67 | 17.2K | |
| Amul Thapar | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $52.63 | 50.0K | |
| Aileen Cannon | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $55.56 | 50.8K | |
| Kathryn Mizelle | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $71.43 | 18.1K | |
| Lawrence VanDyke | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | 18.5K | |
| Patrick Bumatay | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | 15.2K | |
| Allison Jones Rushing | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | 13.0K | ||
| Tom Cotton | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | 26.3K | ||
| Kenneth Lee | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | 14.2K | ||
| Barbara Lagoa | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | 16.3K | ||
| Ron DeSantis | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 19.6K | ||
| Yaakov Roth | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 333 | ||
| Anna St. John | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 334 | ||
| Steven Menashi | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 6.5K | ||
| Matthew Schwartz | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 5.1K | ||
| Eric Tung | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 4.3K | ||
| Kevin Newsom | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | 17.9K | ||
| David Stras | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | 13.2K | ||
| Gregory G. Katsas | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | 35.4K | ||
| Matthew Kacsmaryk | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 14.6K | ||
| Trevor McFadden | <1% | 0¢ | 10.8K | |||
| Clint Bolick | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 13.9K | ||
| Kevin Brobson | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 10.0K | ||
| Britt Grant | <1% | 0¢ | 22.3K | |||
| Allison Eid | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 10.5K | ||
| Evan Young | <1% | 0¢ | 10.7K | |||
| Joan Larsen | <1% | 0¢ | 24.0K | |||
| Kate Comerford Todd | <1% | 0¢ | 23.3K | |||
| Patrick Wyrick | <1% | 0¢ | 10.9K | |||
| Kristen Waggoner | <1% | 0¢ | 16.2K | |||
| Morse Tan | <1% | 0¢ | 24.9K | |||
| Mark Martin | <1% | 0¢ | 11.3K | |||
| Stephanos Bibas | <1% | 0¢ | 25.7K | |||
| Stuart Kyle Duncan | <1% | 0¢ | 11.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Supreme Court, Ted Cruz, Andrew Oldham
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All supreme court & courts ›What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?
7%Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists
- Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists7%▼ 1
- Republican National Committee v. Eakin6%▼ 2
- Duncan v. Bonta6%
5 more
- Buenrostro-Mendez v. Blanche4%
- Norfolk Southern Railway v. Mallory4%▼ 1
- Bird v. Iowa Migrant Movement for Justice3%
- Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America v. O’Day3%
- Khalid Shaikh Mohammad v. United States2%
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term? (Jan 20, 2029)
75%6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals
- 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals75%▲ 6
- Not nine justices16%▼ 1
- 7 Conservatives and 2 Liberals7%▼ 2
2 more
- 9 Conservatives and 0 Liberals1%
- 8 Conservatives and 1 Liberals1%
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
9%December 31
- October 31<1%▼ 1
- December 319%▼ 5
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
23%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar23%▼ 2
- John Brennan12%▲ 1
- Miles Taylor9%▲ 1
40 more
- Dan J. Sullivan8%
- Peter Strzok7%
- Fani Willis7%
- Leon Black7%
- James Clapper6%▼ 2
- Letitia James6%▼ 1
- Hunter Biden6%
- Andrew Weissmann6%
- Reid Hoffman6%
- Cassidy Hutchinson6%▲ 1
- Keith Ellison5%
- Anthony Fauci5%
- Kimberly Guilfoyle5%▼ 2
- Adam Schiff5%
- Lisa Monaco5%
- Joe Kent4%
- Jack Smith4%
- Chris Krebs4%
- Gustavo Petro4%
- Tim Walz4%▲ 1
- Elissa Slotkin4%
- Christopher Wray4%▼ 1
- Jacob Frey4%
- Gavin Newsom4%
- Jennifer Siebel Newsom4%▲ 1
- Liz Cheney3%▼ 1
- Mark Milley3%
- Bill Clinton3%
- Alvin Bragg3%
- E. Jean Carroll3%
- Chris Christie2%
- Hillary Clinton2%
- Lisa Cook2%
- Tucker Carlson2%
- Mark Kelly2%
- Pam Bondi2%
- Barack Obama2%
- George Soros2%
- Jerome Powell1%
- Joe Biden1%
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
28%chance
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions