Claudia Sheinbaum announces departure as President of Mexico? (Before Jan 2030)

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Dec 31, 2029 · prices read 9 h ago

The odds

13%Before Jan 1, 2030

Before Jul 1, 20274%
Before Jan 1, 20285%
Before Jul 1, 20286%
Before Jan 1, 20298%
Before Jul 1, 202911%
Before Jan 1, 203013%

How the odds have moved

Before Jan 1, 2028: 5% on Oct 19, 5% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Jul 1, 2027	4%	1¢	6¢	$16.67
Before Jan 1, 2028	5%	2¢	7¢	$14.29	2.00
Before Jul 1, 2028	6%	3¢	9¢	$11.11	2.00
Before Jan 1, 2029	8%	5¢	11¢	$9.09	2.00
Before Jul 1, 2029	11%	7¢	14¢	$7.14
Before Jan 1, 2030	13%	9¢	16¢	$6.25

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum

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The President of Mexico Will Meet with Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit, in ChinaMexico Solidarity Media · 4 days agoThis article by Sugeyry Romina Gándara originally appeared in the November 5, 2026 edition of SinEmbargo. During the morning press conference, when asked about this trip, the president reported that she will be in China from November 15 to…
Marine Le Pen Launched Her Campaign Promising France Won’t Become Mexico, and Claudia Sheinbaum Had the Perfect AnswerFIERCE by mitú · 4 days agoLe Pen spoke on Sunday, Oct. 25, at a rally in Orléans, where she laid out her platform for France’s 2027 presidential election before roughly 8,500 supporters. Similarly, the city she chose symbolizes French resistance in the time of Joan…
Zelensky lands in Spain in the framework of the Ibero-American summitAra in English · 5 days agoDiari ARA The President of Ukraine has landed a few minutes ago in Madrid to meet with dignitaries and senior officials within the framework of the XXX Ibero-American Summit, as confirmed by Moncloa sources to ARA One of the meetings he…
Fox’s Confession That He Made “Calderón Win” Is Serious and Proves Us Right, Sheinbaum SaysMexico Solidarity Media · 5 days agoThis article by Lilian Hernández and Arturo Sánchez originally appeared in the November 3, 2026 edition of La Jornada, Mexico’s premier left wing daily newspaper. Mexico City. The statements by former president Vicente Fox to a Spanish…
Mexican President says raids and racism against immigrants likely influenced Latino vote in US midtermsJFeed · 4 days agoMexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stated that immigration raids and racism against immigrants very likely influenced the Latino vote in the U.S. midterm elections. Sheinbaum's comments address the impact of immigration enforcement…
Vincula CSP 'cochinero' y 'coyotes' de INE con Somos@reforma · 4 days agoSheinbaum vinculó el esquema de corrupción en contratos electorales con Somos, al señalar que un investigado participa en esa organización. Claudia Guerrero y Natalia Vitela Cd. de México (05 noviembre 2026) .-08:34 hrs La Presidenta…
People’s Mañanera November 4Mexico Solidarity Media · 5 days agoEvery day, President Claudia Sheinbaum gives a morning presidential press conference and Mexico Solidarity Media posts English language summaries, translated by Mexico Solidarity’s Pedro Gellert. Previous press conference summaries are…
Mexico's Sheinbaum says immigration raids, racism likely swayed Latino US midterm voteDevdiscourse · 4 days agoRead more about Mexico's Sheinbaum says immigration raids, racism likely swayed Latino US midterm vote on Devdiscourse Mexico's Sheinbaum says immigration raids, racism likely swayed Latino US midterm vote Mexican President Claudia…
People’s Mañanera November 5Mexico Solidarity Media · 4 days agoPresident Sheinbaum's daily press conference, with comments on bid-rigging in election contracts, the state printing office, and the electoral authority's 2027 budget. Every day, President Claudia Sheinbaum gives a morning presidential…
Mexico’s president recognizes Mexican Americans elected governor in Texas, CaliforniaKJZZ · 5 days agoMexico’s president recognized Tuesday’s winners of the governorship in Texas and California, both of whom are the first Latinos elected to lead their states as governor. Governors-elect Gina Hinojosa in Texas and Xavier Becerra in…
ICE Detains Mexican TV Host Ines Gomez Mont, Who Once Proposed to Tom Brady on Live TV, Following Fraud ChargesOK! Magazine · 5 days agoICE has detained one of the more controversial figures in NFL broadcasting history, picking up former Mexican TV host Ines Gomez Mont after she spent years on the run attempting to dodge fraud charges. ICE picked up Gomez Mont on October…
2026 U.S. Midterms Monitoring: Latin American Leaders' Reactions to the Election ResultsDDIA · 5 days agoBy noon Eastern Time on November 4, only Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum and Colombia's Former President Gustavo Petro seem to weigh in on the U.S. midterms. Their reactions contrasted with the apparent silence of right-leaning…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onClaudia Sheinbaum, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News

Trading closesDec 31, 2029 11:59 PM ET

Traded$0 (6 contracts)

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Claudia Sheinbaum leaves (or announces she will leave) as President of Mexico before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions