How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (11/8-11/14)
26.4median
-850
Median 26.4Middle half 23.2 – 29.6
Install
Who will be Ranking Member of Senate HELP Committee? (For the 120th Congress)
The odds
55%Josh Hawley
- Josh Hawley55%▲ 6
- Rand Paul39%▲ 9
- Lisa Murkowski4%▼ 6
- Tim Scott1%▼ 3
- Jim Banks1%▼ 3
How the odds have moved
Josh Hawley: 3% on Nov 6, 55% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 6, 11 PM ETJosh Hawley: 3% → 49%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hawley | 55% | ▲ 6 | 6¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | 1.8K |
| Rand Paul | 39% | ▲ 9 | 5¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 2.1K |
| Lisa Murkowski | 4% | ▼ 6 | 2¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 15.2K |
| Tim Scott | 1% | ▼ 3 | 1¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 5.00 |
| Jim Banks | 1% | ▼ 3 | 1¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | 5.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Ranking Member of Senate HELP Committee, Josh Hawley, Rand Paul
Search ›- Sen. Rand Paul on his confrontation of Trump and Senate GOP over Iran strikesMarch 29, 2026 / 1:45 PM EDT / CBS News President Trump's decision to launch strikes against Iran has won support from most Senate Republicans, but Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul is the lone exception. "Madison said that we would give the…
- EXCLUSIVE: Rand Paul Says Economic Woes, Iran War Sank GOP In MidtermsRepublican Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul has pinned the GOP’s midterm bloodbath on mounting economic pressures facing Americans, including the Iran War. Paul attributed the GOP’s losses across the country Tuesday night, in part, to voters’…
- Rand Paul’s near ‘filibuster’ and the record booksMay 21, 2015 | by NCC Staff U.S. Senator Rand Paul, with some help from his friends, completed a 10 ½-hour talk on the Senate floor late Wednesday night. So how does Paul’s latest effort compare to other extended oratory in the Senate?…
- JONAH GOLDBERG: The unfortunate decline of Congress as a deliberative bodyBrokenness is spiderwebbing out into our politics like a cracked windshield My ballpark estimate: In the recently concluded midterm campaign season, Democrats ran roughly eleventy-bajillion ads accusing Republican office-holders of voting…
- Senator Rand Paul visits eastern KentuckySenator Rand Paul was in eastern Kentucky last week to promote the Eastern Kentucky Leaf Trail and Blossom Byway, the regional tourism initiative he launched last fall. The initiative is designed to connect scenic mountain landscapes and…
- The unfortunate decline of Congress as a deliberative bodyJonah Goldberg is editor in chief of the Dispatch and has been a Los Angeles Times Opinion columnist since 2005. My ballpark estimate: In the recently concluded midterm campaign season, Democrats ran roughly eleventy-bajillion ads accusing…
- Lawmakers Race To Make Chinese Car Ban Permanent Before Congress Runs Out Of TimeTime is running out for a bipartisan bill to ban Chinese cars from the U.S. to be passed in the Senate before a new Congress is sworn in. “Given the obvious national security risk and China’s pattern of unfair behavior, Congress should…
- “We Need to Break Up Big Medicine”: Warren Targets UnitedHealth as Democrats Win Congress@jittawit21 from jittawit21 via Canva, @ภาพของJd8 via Canva Democrats won both chambers of Congress on Nov. 3, and healthcare sits near the top of their agenda. That’s awkward timing for UnitedHealth Group (UNH). Two days earlier, Sen…
- Comer re-elected to Congress this week. Will he spend the next year running for Kentucky governor?Republican Congressman James Comer won re-election this week for a sixth term serving Kentucky’s First Congressional District. But signs seem to be pointing toward the GOP lawmaker hitting the campaign trail again soon in a potential bid…
- Hyde-Smith’s lawyers name U.S. Senate as forum for election contest, but chamber has no fixed procedure for itA former lawyer for Elon Musk’s PAC and Erin Hawley, wife of Republican Sen. Josh Hawley, are among the members of the firm asking Mississippi counties to separate and preserve affidavit ballots in case of a challenge or proceeding before…
- Football Friday Night 11-6-26: Hopkins County Central vs GlasgowWBKO Football Friday Night 11-6-26: Hopkins County Central vs Glasgow Jefferson County Sheriff’s Office conducts active shooter training FULL INTERVIEW: Gov. Andy Beshear talks vaccine mandate, CRT, economic development, Covid response…
- “7 Of The Most Unpopular People In The Country”: Fox News’ 2028 Presidential Predictions Are Going Viral, And LOLOLWhen I was 14, MTV came to my house because I was one of Britney Spears' biggest fans. It's certainly been a week in American politics! Fox News is apparently already looking ahead to the 2028 presidential election, and some of these…
Related markets
All congress ›Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth? (Before 2027)
91%Before Nov 14, 2026
- Before Nov 14, 202691%▲ 10
- Before Nov 21, 202692%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202793%▼ 1
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
14.85%median
-100%100%
Median 14.85%Middle half 14.26% – 15.43%
How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
95%At least 22
2023
Will a cabinet member be impeached? (Before Jan 20, 2029)
79%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Jan 1, 202779%▲ 8
- Before Apr 1, 202793%▲ 13
- Before Jul 1, 202794%▲ 11
3 more
- Before Oct 1, 202794%▲ 5
- Before Jan 1, 202894%▲ 6
- Before Jan 20, 202994%▲ 2
Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?
38%chance▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions