How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (11/8-11/14)
26.3median
-850
Median 26.3Middle half 23.1 – 29.5
Install
Will Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?
The odds
17%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 19% on Oct 20, 17% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 17% | 13¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 2.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: OASI Trust Fund, Social Security
Search ›- Social Security Email Praising Trump Days Before Midterm Under ScrutinyNov 02, 2026 at 04:22 PM EST The Social Security Administration (SSA) is facing scrutiny after sending a mass email praising President Donald Trump just days before the midterm elections. On Friday and Saturday, Americans with online…
- Social Security Payments Up to $5,181 Arriving This Week: Who Gets Paid?Nov 02, 2026 at 04:16 AM EST A new round of Social Security payments is scheduled to land in beneficiaries’ accounts this week, with some recipients eligible for as much as $5,181. The Social Security Administration’s 2026 payment calendar…
- These Senate races may help determine the fate of Social SecuritySenators elected this November must answer a crucial question before their six-year term ends: What will they do to fix Social Security? The program's trustees project that the trust fund Social Security relies on to help pay retirement…
- Social Security may have to cut retirement benefits in six years. Here's how much money is at stake for beneficiariesSocial Security retirement benefits may face an automatic, across-the-board cut in just six years. Without intervention before then, the Social Security retirement trust fund, formally known as the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust…
- What are the Social Security projected benefit cuts for 2032? This is how much benefits may be reducedMillions of Americans could face a significant reduction in their retirement payments within six years Social Security is approaching a financial deadline that could have serious consequences for millions of retired Americans, with…
- A New Poll Just Exposed a Generational Fight Over Social Security That Could Affect Every RetireeA viral poll reignites debate over who should foot the bill. The survey was originally published in December 2025 but attracted renewed attention in October 2026. Behind the backlash is a looming financial deadline that could force…
- In unusual email, Social Security Administration touts Trump days before electionsDays before consequential midterm elections, the head of the Social Security Administration blasted out an email to the public praising President Donald Trump. “Under President Donald J. Trump, the Social Security Administration (SSA) is…
- Social Security Cuts Could Happen in 6 Years. Here's How to PrepareWhat would happen to your retirement plans if your Social Security benefits suddenly dropped by 22%? It might sound like a worst-case scenario, but it's a possibility you should take seriously. The Social Security Trustees recently…
- Post-midterm question: What to do about Social Security’s pending insolvency?Washington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
- Martin O'Malley, former Maryland governor, to run for DNC chair, resigns from Social Security AdministrationUpdated on: November 19, 2024 / 8:13 AM EST / CBS Baltimore BALTIMORE -- Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley is resigning as Social Security Administration commissioner to run for chairman of the Democratic National Committee, according…
- Trump’s Social Security Chief Says Social Security Will Survive 90 More Years - But There’s a CatchWhy a lasting program may still mean smaller monthly checks. Ninety more years of Social Security sounds like reassuring news, especially when you're relying on those monthly checks to help pay your bills in retirement. That's the promise…
- Code on Social Security 2020 and Gig WorkersFor Prelims: Gig worker, Social Security, Employees Provident Fund, Garib Kalyan Rojgar Abhiyaan, e-Shram Portal, Code on Wages, 2019. For Mans: Code on Social Security, 2020. Recently, the Ministry of State for Labour and Employment told…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions