How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (11/8-11/14)
26.4median
-850
Median 26.4Middle half 23.2 – 29.6
Install
Will Haley Stevens leave the House Democratic Caucus? (Before Jan 3, 2027)
The odds
28%chance▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 43% on Nov 2, 28% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 4, 3 PM ET41% → 17%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 28% | ▲ 1 | 24¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 1.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: House Democratic Caucus, Haley Stevens
Search ›- Dems’ ruthless purge of Haley Stevens and more: Letters to the Editor — Nov. 8, 2026What do Democrats mean when they brag about their “big tent” strategy (“DSA Takeover,” Ari Hoffman, PostOpinion, Nov. 3)? It’s supposed to be a party with room for diverse viewpoints. Instead, the ruthless purge of Rep. Haley Stevens for…
- Haley Stevens flakes on GWU midterm analysis eventWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
- Indiana House Democratic Caucus breaks the supermajority and welcomes 17 new membersINDIANAPOLIS – Today the Indiana House Democratic Caucus was proud to welcome 17 new members into the largest Democratic freshman class since 1974. IHDC’s electoral... INDIANAPOLIS – Today the Indiana House Democratic Caucus was proud to…
- House Democratic Caucus Selects Leadership for Upcoming Legislative SessionWGMD - The Talk of Delmarva House Democratic Caucus Selects Leadership for Upcoming Legislative Session Following the November 3rd General Election, which delivered a supermajority of Democrats to the Delaware House of Representatives, the…
- Clyburn, Haley Stevens’ Former Mentor, Backs Expelling Her From Democratic CaucusThe influential South Carolina Democrat endorsed Stevens for Senate in July, but told Politico this week that he would vote to remove her. By Gavin J. Quinton November 6, 2026 02:06 p.m. Rep. Jim Clyburn, the influential South Carolina…
- Despite midterm victories, Dems still want to burn Haley Stevens at the stakeHaley Stevens is a dangerous woman. Even after the Democrats’ big midterm win, that message is still echoing across the liberal landscape. Only recently embraced as a top candidate for the Michigan Senate nomination, Stevens is now…
- James Clyburn: I'd Support Expelling Haley Stevens from the Dem CaucusRep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) found himself in an awkward position during the final days of the Michigan Senate race: Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed were at each other’s throats again. They were scheduled to appear together at his campaign…
- Haley Stevens Bails on Postelection Event in D.C.The panel, which was set to feature the embattled congresswoman and progressive strategist Morris Katz, is now set to feature Rep. Jamie Raskin instead. The Thursday event comes just days after a Democratic rout that saw the party reclaim…
- Michigan Democrat Haley Stevens Withdraws Endorsement from Nominee, Backs Republican OpponentAt SSBCrack News, our dedicated editorial team brings you the latest and most reliable updates on Defence, Geopolitics, Military Affairs, Science, and Technology. Driven by a passion for national security and strategic awareness, the…
- Stewart: Dems Defeated 'S***iness,' Schumer Must Go For Supporting Haley StevensWhile The Weekly Show is released on Thursday, it is taped on Wednesday, a fact Stewart mentioned when he began the show by explaining, “On this Wednesday morning, November 4th, you may hear in my voice a slight rasp, a slight hoarseness…
- Hannah Einbinder Breaks Out Haley Stevens Impression After Abdul El-Sayed Michigan VictoryHannah Einbinder made good on her promise to debut an impression of Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens if Abdul El-Sayed won the state’s Senate race on Tuesday night. El-Sayed defeated Mike Rogers in Michigan’s closely watched Senate race…
- Democrats predict Haley Stevens endorsement will ‘backfire’Fox News Democrats predict Haley Stevens endorsement will ‘backfire’ Democrats at an election night party in Detroit dismissed Haley Stevens’ endorsement of Mike Rogers on Tuesday, saying it'll likely help Abdul El-Sayed.
Related markets
All congress ›Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth? (Before 2027)
91%Before Nov 14, 2026
- Before Nov 14, 202691%▲ 10
- Before Nov 21, 202692%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202793%▼ 1
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
14.85%median
-100%100%
Median 14.85%Middle half 14.26% – 15.43%
How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
95%At least 22
2023
Will a cabinet member be impeached? (Before Jan 20, 2029)
79%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Jan 1, 202779%▲ 8
- Before Apr 1, 202793%▲ 13
- Before Jul 1, 202794%▲ 11
3 more
- Before Oct 1, 202794%▲ 5
- Before Jan 1, 202894%▲ 6
- Before Jan 20, 202994%▲ 2
Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?
38%chance▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions