Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closed Oct 27 · $7K today · $71.3K traded · $23K at stake

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Settled 289.00A day before, traders had a median of 298.3

The last odds before it closed

302.0median

✓ Above 26098%▲ 1
✓ Above 27097%▲ 3
✓ Above 28091%▲ 2
Above 29080%▲ 4
Above 30058%▲ 20
Above 31019%▲ 1
Above 3204%▼ 1
Above 3302%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Median: 291.6 on Oct 20, 302.0 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Last odds	Contracts
✓ Above 260	98%	9.7K
✓ Above 270	97%	13.6K
✓ Above 280	91%	16.0K
✗ Above 290	80%	26.0K
✗ Above 300	58%	16.6K
✗ Above 310	19%	13.6K
✗ Above 320	4%	17.5K
✗ Above 330	2%	13.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Suez Canal

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Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd Expand Return to Suez Canal Shipping RoutesBeckchoice · 3 days agoMaersk and Hapag-Lloyd have announced another step in their gradual return to the Suez Canal, with their ME1 shipping service now operating via the Red Sea and Suez Canal instead of taking the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope. The…
Sisi Orders Egypt Emergency Stockpile StudyThe Rio Times · 42 h agoEgypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi ordered officials on Saturday 7 November 2026 to study a strategic stockpile for emergencies and crises. The presidency, the president’s office, said he also told state bodies to finish a national…
Suez Canal records its highest monthly revenue since 2023 in OctoberTASS · 4 days agoIn October, 1,490 vessels transited the canal - Russian Politics & Diplomacy Russian Politics & DiplomacyInto section â- Business & Economy Business & EconomyInto section â - Military & Defense Military & DefenseInto section â…
Suez Canal revenue reaches highest monthly level since 2023Kazinform · 4 days agoThe Suez Canal has recorded the highest revenue worth $724 mln since the Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea began in 2023, Osama Rabie, Chairman of the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), said at a panel discussion organized by the Egyptian…
El Sisi Orders Study of Strategic Reserves Amid Supply-Chain FearsEconoTimes · 41 h agoThe authority will study a proposal for strategic reserves to help Egypt respond to emergencies, after the government said essential food supplies could last six months. After Egypt’s government said last month that essential food reserves…
Sanctioned tanker towed by Suez Canal tug after engine failuretradewindsnews.com · 4 days agoTradeWinds News Sanctioned tanker towed by Suez Canal tug after engine failure Authority says salvage of Russian-trading ship was successful
Tailwind returns Panda Express service to Suez CanalContainer News · 4 days agoTailwind Shipping Lines will return its Far East–Mediterranean Panda Express (PAX) service to the Suez Canal route later in November, according to DynaLiners. As part of the adjustment, Tailwind will reverse the order of its Mediterranean…
New Maps Show How Shipping Noise Spans the Globenewswise.com · 47 h agoScientists have modeled shipping noise on a global scale. The world-wide maps will be presented for the first time at the 21st International Congress on Acoustics (ICA 2013), held June 2-7 in Montreal. New Maps Show How Shipping Noise…
Suez Canal Authority Successfully Tows Oil Tanker Off Egypt’s North CoastSEE News · 4 days agoThe Suez Canal Authority has successfully completed a major maritime rescue and towing operation involving the oil tanker M/T ALYSSUM, which suffered a sudden failure of its main engines off the coast of El Alamein, Egypt. The operation…
Egypt, Slovenia discuss boosting trade, investment tiesDailynewsegypt · 2 days agoMohamed Farid, Egypt’s Minister of Investment and Foreign Trade, and Nataša Pirc Musar, President of Slovenia, participated in a roundtable organised by the Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce to explore opportunities for…
Suez Canal Revenue Surges 94% to $724 Million as Shipping Traffic ReboundsSEE News · 4 days agoThe Suez Canal recorded a significant recovery in October, generating $724 million in revenue as international shipping activity continued to return to the strategic waterway despite persistent geopolitical tensions across the region…
Israel's Arab-led parties in spotlight after inconclusive electionNPR · 3 days agoA Palestinian citizen of Israel casts her ballot in the country's general election at a polling station in Umm al-Fahm, Israel, Oct. 27, 2026 Mahmoud Illean/AP hide caption KUFR QASI, Israel — In recent years many Palestinian citizens of…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onIMF PortWatch

Trading closedOct 27, 2026 9:00 AM ET

Traded$71.3K (126,467 contracts)

Today$7K

This week$37.9K

At stake$23K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the number of transit calls through the Suez Canal as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 260 from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions