When will the Riksdag approve a new Prime Minister?

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Jun 30, 2027 · $188 today · $437 traded · $347 at stake · prices read 4 h ago

The odds

Dec 6, 2026even chance by

Before Nov 13, 20267%
Before Dec 1, 202646%▲ 13
Before Dec 19, 202661%▲ 8
Before Feb 1, 202782%▲ 4
Before Jul 1, 202795%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Before Nov 13, 2026: 19% on Oct 20, 7% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Nov 13, 2026	7%		3¢	11¢	$9.09
Before Dec 1, 2026	46%	▲ 13	42¢	50¢	$2.00	894
Before Dec 19, 2026	61%	▲ 8	56¢	65¢	$1.54	43.00
Before Feb 1, 2027	82%	▲ 4	77¢	86¢	$1.16
Before Jul 1, 2027	95%	▲ 1	90¢	99¢	$1.01

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Prime Minister, Riksdag, Swedish

Search ›

Trump JOKES about becoming Israeli prime ministerFox News · 6 days agoFox News Trump JOKES about becoming Israeli prime minister President Donald Trump joked about his approval rating in Israel, suggesting he could becoming the next prime minister.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney Says Russia Will Not Participate In 2027 World JuniorsYahoo Sports · 6 days agoYahoo Sports Prime Minister Mark Carney has announced that Russia will not be participating in the upcoming world junior hockey championship in Alberta.
Haiti's prime minister Fils-Aimé speaks out as concerns over El Salvador's troops deepenThe Washington Post · 6 days agoThe Washington Post PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti — Haiti’s prime minister spoke publicly on Tuesday for the first time since four Salvadoran aviation technicians went missing last month, prompting El Salvador to deploy more than 2,000 troops to…
Poland's constitutional crisis deepens as Prime Minister Tusk faces accusations of power grabFox News · 7 days agoFriday’s late-night confrontation at Poland's Constitutional Tribunal, which drew riot police, protesters and prompted President Karol Nawrocki to turn his plane around and return to Warsaw, has reignited a bitter debate over whether Prime…
Rubio Calls Malaysian Prime Minister AnwarMirage News · 4 days agoWollongong-based online news outlet covering Australia and beyond. If you have anything newsworthy - a story, video or picture to share with us, please email us. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke today with Malaysian Prime Minister…
The Prime Minister receives State Award Laureate Kam Ghaffarian@nikolpashinyan · 5 days agoՎարչապետ Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan received Kam Ghaffarian, co-founder of the American companies IBX, X-energy, and Quantum Space, who is the laureate of the Republic of Armenia’s State Award for Global Contribution in the Field of…
Prime Minister's Disaster Relief Fund Receives Continued Financial Support@Rato_pati · 5 days agoKathmandu. Following the Bhote Koshi flood in Rasuwa, the flow of financial assistance to the Prime Minister's Disaster Relief Fund and the Prime Minister's Relief Fund continues. According to the Office of the Prime Minister and the…
Prime Minister, Saudi Foreign Minister hold phone call@thepeninsulaqatar · 5 days agoDoha: Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign AffairsHE Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the King... Prime Minister, Saudi Foreign Minister hold phone call Doha: Prime Minister and…
UTJ declines to endorse candidate for prime ministerIsrael National News · 5 days agoRepresentatives of the United Torah Judaism (UTJ) faction announced Thursday morning that they would not recommend any candidate for prime minister following consultations with President Isaac Herzog. UTJ declines to endorse candidate for…
Nominations open for 2027 Prime Minister's Prizes for ScienceScience and Resources · 5 days agoSenator the Hon Tim Ayres Minister for Industry and InnovationMinister for Science Nominations are now open for the 2027 Prime Minister’s Prizes for Science, Australia’s most prestigious awards celebrating our outstanding scientists…
HRH the Crown Prince and Prime Minister meets with the Prime Minister of the Republic of Iraqwww.crownprince.bh · 5 days agoHis Royal Highness Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, the Crown Prince and Prime Minister, today met with His Excellency Ali Faleh Al-Zaidi, Prime Minister of the Republic of Iraq, at Gudaibiya Palace. His Royal Highness affirmed the…
Prime Minister briefs UK PM on rising tensions with Guatemala@belizemedia · 5 days agoBelize News and Opinion on www.breakingbelizenews.com Prime Minister briefs UK PM on rising tensions with Guatemala By Zoila Palma: Prime Minister John Briceño met with United Kingdom Prime Minister Andy Burnham during engagements at the…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onThe Riksdag

Trading closesJun 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$437 (936 contracts)

Today$188

This week$415

At stake$347

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the Riksdag approves a new Prime Minister in a vote on the Speaker's proposal before Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions