Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
12%December 31
- June 30, 202712%▲ 1
- December 3112%
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Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement? (Before Jan 2027)
The odds
27%Before Jan 1, 2028
- Before Jan 1, 20278%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 20279%
- Before Jan 1, 202827%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 8% on Oct 20, 8% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 8% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 35.7K |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 9% | 7¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 42.3K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 27% | ▲ 1 | 23¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 3.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Clarence Thomas
Search ›- Clarence Thomas to teach UT Austin seminar on civil rights this springU.S. Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas answers questions after his special lecture at Hogg Memorial Auditorium at the University of Texas on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Thomas will return to the Forty Acres this spring to teach…
- So will Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas retire now?What did Tuesday’s midterm election results have to do with the Supreme Court? In a word: everything. For starters, the rampant mid-decade gerrymandering that Republicans orchestrated in an effort to hold onto control by diluting the…
- Maybe Clarence Thomas Is Conservatives' Only Hope NowWhen Republicans took a beating in the midterms, there was no denying that the clock started ticking on the Supreme Court's conservative majority. Democrats will take firm control of the Senate in January, and they’ll probably hold it for…
- Will Clarence Thomas or Samuel Alito be hanging up their robes any time soon? And About Reforming the Court…Following the massive Blue Tsunami, the future of the Supreme Court may be up for change. At this point, the odds are against Republicans being able to replace them once the new Democratic majority Congress is sworn in – and that it could…
- Alito reiterates he's not retiring, is committed through end of current Supreme Court termFlorida Gov. Ron DeSantis warns that an incoming Democratic Senate majority means no Supreme Court Justice or major cabinet officials will be confirmed. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito confirmed to Fox News that he has no plans to…
- Trump will be blocked from putting ‘rightwinger’ on supreme court, Schumer saysAfter midterm wins, Democratics plan comeback for when new Congress is sworn in, including pushback against Trump and his policies Donald Trump will be blocked from putting a “rightwinger” on the US supreme court, according to Chuck…
- GOP Senate ready for lame duck Supreme Court confirmation — if Alito or Thomas change mindWASHINGTON — Senate Republicans are open to holding a lame duck Supreme Court confirmation if Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas change their mind about not retiring after the midterm blue tsunami. “It can be done,” Senate Majority…
- Democratic wave prompts GOP anxiety over Samuel Alito and future of Supreme CourtThe Democratic rout in Tuesday’s midterm elections sparked an immediate sense of unease on the right about the future of the Supreme Court and a new round of Republican anxiety over decisions by Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas to…
- MS NOW host suggests Byron Donalds’ not true 'kinfolk' after historic Florida gubernatorial victoryMS NOW host Symone Sanders Townsend acknowledged Byron Donalds’ election as Florida’s first Black governor before comparing his policies to Gov. Ron DeSantis’. MS NOW host Symone Sanders Townsend suggested Tuesday that Florida Republican…
- Under-the-radar implication of Dem blue wave means 'zero' chance GOP accomplishes critical goal, experts warnFlorida Gov. Ron DeSantis sounded off Wednesday on Republicans' massive nationwide losses, while analysts consider whether his vocal responses are positioning him for a nationwide run. Republicans’ sweeping losses Tuesday could reshape the…
- The biggest winners and losers of the 2026 midterm electionsThe results are still rolling in on the 2026 midterm elections. But the overall contours of what just happened are already obvious: A historic Democratic victory, and a historic setback for what is now the lame-duck presidency of Donald…
- Conservative Supreme Court justices in spotlight after Democratic landslideElko Daily Free Press Javascript is required to use this website. A Lee Enterprises, Incorporated newspaper. Majority shareholder: David Hoffmann, Hoffmann Media Group. Conservative Supreme Court justices in spotlight after Democratic…
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What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term? (Jan 20, 2029)
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- 9 Conservatives and 0 Liberals1%
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SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
9%December 31
- October 31<1%▼ 1
- December 319%▼ 5
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23%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar23%▼ 2
- John Brennan12%▲ 1
- Miles Taylor9%▲ 1
40 more
- Dan J. Sullivan8%
- Peter Strzok7%
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- Leon Black7%
- James Clapper6%▼ 2
- Letitia James6%▼ 1
- Hunter Biden6%
- Andrew Weissmann6%
- Reid Hoffman6%
- Cassidy Hutchinson6%▲ 1
- Keith Ellison5%
- Anthony Fauci5%
- Kimberly Guilfoyle5%▼ 2
- Adam Schiff5%
- Lisa Monaco5%
- Joe Kent4%
- Jack Smith4%
- Chris Krebs4%
- Gustavo Petro4%
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- Gavin Newsom4%
- Jennifer Siebel Newsom4%▲ 1
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- Jerome Powell1%
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Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
28%chance
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions