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Who will be the three wealthiest people in the world? (Dec 31, 2026)
The odds
90%Jeff Bezos
- Jeff Bezos90%▼ 1
- Elon Musk86%▲ 11
- Larry Page80%
- Sergey Brin20%▲ 13
- Mark Zuckerberg10%▲ 1
- Jensen Huang3%
- Warren Buffett3%
- Steve Ballmer3%
- Larry Ellison2%
How the odds have moved
Jeff Bezos: 91% on Oct 20, 90% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 5 PM ETJeff Bezos: 87% → 93%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Bezos | 90% | ▼ 1 | 88¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 5.4K |
| Elon Musk | 86% | ▲ 11 | 86¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 10.7K |
| Larry Page | 80% | 76¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | 14.2K | |
| Sergey Brin | 20% | ▲ 13 | 7¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 1.6K |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 10% | ▲ 1 | 6¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 6.1K |
| Jensen Huang | 3% | 3¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 4.9K | |
| Warren Buffett | 3% | 1¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 1.3K | |
| Steve Ballmer | 3% | 31¢ | $3.23 | 158 | ||
| Larry Ellison | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 4.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Larry Page
Search ›- Putin PRAISES Elon Musk as a 'GENIUS'Russian President Vladimir Putin calls Elon Musk a 'genius,' praising his satellite technology and claiming the two continue to work together despite political differences. Putin PRAISES Elon Musk as a 'GENIUS' Russian President Vladimir…
- Elon Musk says he has ‘cyber psychosis’. Do you too?Whether using chatbots for childcare or taking up smoking, a new affliction is sweeping through the tech world. Here are the signsIn the least surprising news you’ll hear all week, Elon Musk has said he’s not entirely right in the head…
- Can Democrats win against Elon Musk's millions in Texas? – videoDemocrats have failed to win statewide office in Texas for 30 years. Before the midterms, Oliver Laughland and Tom Silverstone travel to San Antonio to follow James Talarico and Ken Paxton on the campaign trail - to find out whether the…
- GOP lawmaker on Elon Musk: ‘To the victor goes the spoils’"Every president in American history has the right to have his or her own advisers," Republican Texas Rep. Randy Weber said at a POLITICO Playbook event. 02/25/2025 9:51 AM EST Republican Texas Rep. Randy Weber on Tuesday defended the…
- Putin calls Elon Musk 'truly a genius' as Russia eyes its own version of StarlinkAuthor Walter Isaacson discusses Elon Musk's $446 million campaign spending, the Starlink satellite operations in Ukraine and Russia's goal to launch its own version of the service. Putin calls Elon Musk 'truly a genius' as Russia eyes its…
- Putin praises Elon Musk as a ‘real genius’ as Russia develops Starlink alternativeRussian President Vladimir Putin has called SpaceX CEO Elon Musk a "genius," as he revealed the two are in "close contact" about developing a Russian alternative to Starlink. "Elon Musk is a genius, truly a genius," Putin said at the…
- Law Firm Linked to Elon Musk Started an ‘Election Integrity’ OrganizationThe law firm that helped set up Elon Musk’s America PAC has created a new, nationwide “election integrity” organization aligned with Donald Trump’s false claims of election fraud, WIRED has learned. The organization, a nonprofit called the…
- Vladimir Putin hails Elon Musk’s ‘genius’ amid plans for Russian StarlinkRussia plans to build own version of US billionaire’s satellite communications to help attack Ukraine Vladimir Putin praised Elon Musk’s genius and said he was in touch with Starlink’s controlling shareholder as Russia develops its own…
- Elon Musk is a 'real genius', Putin says after satellite talks with SpaceX bossRussian President Vladimir Putin has promoted the country's own satellite internet project. Elon Musk is a "real genius", Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday after revealing the two are in "close" contact about satellite…
- Democrat fights to see emails between TX Gov, Elon MuskGina Hinojosa joins The Lead. Democrat fights to see emails between TX Gov, Elon Musk Gina Hinojosa joins The Lead.
- Defund Elon MuskHe’s Exhibit A on why billionaire wealth should be taxed, why we must get big money out of politics, why billionaires shouldn’t be allowed to buy up major media, and why our government shouldn’t give them huge military contracts. I’m…
- Elon Musk says Ukraine’s military violated Starlink’s terms of serviceElon Musk claims Ukraine violated Starlink's terms of service before the recent slowdown, as reported earlier by Ars Technica. According to Musk, "Ukraine military violated Starlink terms of service and used it for offensive drone strikes…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions