The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Before Dec 1, 2026
97%
▲ 1
94¢
$1.03
14.9K
Before Jan 1, 2027
97%
▲ 2
93¢
$1.03
5.8K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
China denies Taiwan’s claim it orchestrated attack on comedian who mocked Xi JinpingNBC News · 13 days agoTaiwan is “provoking confrontation” and stirring anti-China sentiment, a Chinese government spokesperson said on Wednesday, after Taiwanese prosecutors indicted five people for plotting to attack a Taiwanese comedian whose shows mocked…
Taiwan: China behind Pakistan airspace closureThe Manila Times · 12 days agoTAIPEI — Pakistan briefly closed its airspace to Taiwanese cargo and passenger flights, Taiwan said Thursday, suspecting China of being behind the unprecedented move. “We suspect definitely China was behind this,” Deputy Foreign Minister…
Taiwan flags ‘obvious’ threat from over 50 Chinese shipsHonolulu Star-Advertiser · 11 days agoThursday, October 29, 2026 77° Today's Paper By Ben Blanchard and Yimou Lee / Reuters ANN WANG / REUTERS / OCT. 18, 2025 A Taiwan Coast Guard ship patrols near Dadan Island, Taiwan, last year. A senior Taiwan official said this week that…
Chinese warships and aircraft operate around Taiwan overnightDefence Blog · 12 days agoTaiwan detected six Chinese military aircraft, seven People’s Liberation Army Navy ships and one Chinese official ship operating around the island in the 24 hours to 6 a.m. local time on Oct. 29, the Ministry of National Defense said on…
Report: Trump did nothing with intel that China planted spy close to Nvidia CEOArs Technica · 11 days agoSpy accused of exploiting Trump ties to Huang, funneling secrets to China. Donald Trump apparently is so aligned with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang—who has become the president’s key advisor on AI—that he ignored intelligence indicating that…
Ukraine knows the secret to defending TaiwanThe Washington Post · 13 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Kyiv’s use of unmanned…
Taiwanese Feature ‘Uncle’ Wins Top Prize at Tokyo Gap-Financing Market AwardsVariety · 11 days agoTaiwanese project “Uncle,” directed by Yen Hao-hsuan, won the Tokyo Project Award on Friday at the seventh Tokyo Gap-Financing Market (TGFM) in Tokyo. “Uncle” had already picked up the Asian Gen-Z Award earlier in the ceremony. Prizes went…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions