NC-03 House winner?
85%Raymond Smith Jr.
- Raymond Smith Jr.85%▲ 1
- Greg Murphy15%
Install
How many Trump-won districts will Democrats win in 2026?
The odds
92%At least 28
770
How the odds have moved
At least 10: 99% on Oct 20, 99% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 10 | 99% | 87¢ | $1.01 | 105 | ||
| At least 13 | 97% | 87¢ | $1.04 | 2.0K | ||
| At least 16 | 97% | 88¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 3.4K | |
| At least 19 | 94% | 88¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 870 | |
| At least 22 | 94% | 88¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 802 | |
| At least 25 | 94% | 88¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 404 | |
| At least 28 | 92% | 88¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 306 | |
| At least 31 | 92% | 84¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 473 | |
| At least 35 | 92% | 81¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 484 | |
| At least 40 | 92% | 81¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 1.0K | |
| At least 46 | 92% | 81¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 2.7K | |
| At least 58 | 92% | 2¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 205 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Trump-won
Search ›- Iranian Army Says Trump Won’t Be Able To ‘Dictate’ the Length of Renewed War(Dave DeCamp, Antiwar.com) A spokesman for Iran’s Army said on Sunday that if the US restarts the bombing campaign against the Islamic Republic, President Trump will not be able to “dictate” the length of the conflict and warned that the…
- Sen. Mark Kelly says Democrats are ‘really concerned’ Trump won’t accept midterm election resultsDemocratic Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona tells Fox News Digital that President Trump won’t ‘rule out doing illegal things’ when it comes to midterm election security ... Sen. Mark Kelly says Democrats are ‘really concerned’ Trump won’t accept…
- Trump Won’t Hesitate to Tout His Presidential and Military Power on His Birthday, Says SMU ExpertDALLAS (SMU) – Two Washington, D.C. events on Saturday, June 14, will combine toneither help nor hurt the public perception of President Donald Trump, according to Cal Jillson, an SMU political science expert. President Trump will…
- Trusted election forecaster shifts 2 governor’s races toward Democrats in states Donald Trump won by double digitsA prominent election forecaster has shifted two gubernatorial races toward Democrats just one week before the midterm elections, raising concerns for Republicans in two states President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. The Cook…
- HERZOG SAYS: Trump Won’t Influence Who Forms Israel’s Next Government After ElectionIsraeli President Isaac Herzog says President Trump will have no influence over his decision on who will be tasked with forming Israel’s next government following Tuesday’s elections, insisting his decision will be based solely on the…
- New Poll Shows Democrat Has Edge In Kansas Senate Race—A State Trump Won By 16 Points In 2024A new Emerson College poll shows Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton slightly ahead of incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in the Kansas Senate race. New Poll Shows Democrat Has Edge In Kansas Senate Race—A State Trump Won By 16 Points…
- Governor Races Shift Toward Democrats in States Trump Won by Double DigitsOct 28, 2026 at 12:01 AM EDT The Cook Political Report has shifted two governor's races toward Democrats one week before midterm elections, with changes seen in Nebraska and Kansas—two Midwest states President Donald Trump won easily in…
- Democratic strategist James Carville says Donald Trump won’t be able to handle Republican midterm losses if they’re ‘too big’: ‘He’s just physically not able to deal’Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville says a sufficiently large Republican defeat in the midterm elections would leave President Donald Trump unable to manage the political fallout and with little influence beyond the formal powers…
- Trump won’t rule out sending troops to polling sites. Most Americans are against it, a study finds.A survey of Americans by the German Marshall Fund and NORC found that 59% of respondents agreed that the president should not use the federal military to monitor or administer elections. With the midterm elections expected to determine the…
- Dems in Congress say they’re wary Trump won’t accept results of electionVirginia Sen. Mark Warner speaks with reporters in the U.S. Capitol building on Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025. As Election Day approaches, top Democrats on the intelligence committees in Congress are preparing for the possibility that President…
- Rep. Jim Himes: Trump won’t accept the midterm resultsIt’s easier than ever to argue that some ultra-wealthy people are strange, selfish, and even evil. The chancellor says he wants to give people facing cost-of-living pressures "breathing space" as Tory leader Kemi Badenoch says the UK is…
- Gutfeld: Trump won’t be in the White House foreverFox News host Greg Gutfeld and the ‘Gutfeld!’ panel analyze recent insults from former President Barack Obama against President Donald Trump. Gutfeld: Trump won’t be in the White House forever Fox News host Greg Gutfeld and the ‘Gutfeld!’…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions