Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
12%December 31
- June 30, 202712%▲ 1
- December 3112%
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Will a court block paid early access to Trump's Truth Social posts? (Before Apr 1, 2027)
The odds
31%Before Apr 1, 2027
- Before Dec 1, 202616%▼ 8
- Before Jan 1, 202728%▼ 3
- Before Apr 1, 202731%▼ 7
How the odds have moved
Before Dec 1, 2026: 28% on Oct 20, 16% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 9, 9 PM ETBefore Dec 1, 2026: 24% → 16%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 16% | ▼ 8 | 15¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 2.8K |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 28% | ▼ 3 | 26¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 25.7K |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 31% | ▼ 7 | 28¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | 605 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Trump's Truth Social
Search ›- Bloomberg, two trading firms agree to pay Trump's Truth Social for faster access to president's posts, sources sayPublished on 10/28/2026 at 08:20 pm EDT - Modified on 10/28/2026 at 08:27 pm EDT NEW YORK, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Truth Social, the social media platform founded by President Donald Trump, has signed up news and data provider Bloomberg and two…
- Beware of fake Trump Truth Social posts about 2026 midtermsDonald Trump often makes news with posts on his Truth Social platform, but bogus screenshots of messages attributed to the US president also regularly circulate on social media. In the days leading up to key midterm elections, AFP found…
- Fact Check: Trump Did NOT Post On Truth Social The 'CLARITY Act' Is Canceled Alongside The Strategic Bitcoin ReserveDid President Donald Trump post on Truth Social that the "CLARITY Act" is canceled alongside the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve? No, that's not true: A review of Trump's Truth Social account found no record of the post. No established news…
- Did Trump post about 'consequences' after midterm losses?As the results of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections rolled in, President Donald Trump — known for his frequent and brash social media posts — remained relatively muted, attributing the Democratic Party's sweeping victories to the fact that…
- Trump's CNN Rival Kaitlan Collins Uses Prez's 'Landslide' Claim Against Him as She Exposes His Midterm Blame GameKaitlan Collins has exposed Donald Trump's midterm blame game Nov. 6 2026, Updated 10:34 a.m. ET CNN anchor Kaitlan Collins challenged President Donald Trump's attempt to distance himself from Republicans' sweeping midterm losses, using…
- Trump displays red ‘veto’ cap on Oval Office desk as Democrats take control of CongressWASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump has appeared to have given the Oval Office a pointed political makeover on Thursday (local time), displaying a massive red cap emblazoned with the word “VETO” on the historic Resolute Desk, days after…
- ‘It wasn’t Republicans, it was Dumocrats’: Trump blames election results for stock market plungeWASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump on Thursday (local time) blamed the Democratic Party’s sweeping victories in the midterm elections for a sharp plunge in the US stock market, telling investors not to panic and assuring them that…
- Trump complains but Democratic steamroller powers aheadWashington (United States) (AFP) – US President Donald Trump resumed complaining about election results Thursday but the Democratic midterms steam roller powered ahead, with a potential new Senate pick-up in Mississippi underlining the…
- Late Night Got Its Lick BackLate night comedians got all the fuel they could ask for to attack their enemy Donald Trump. Here’s how they covered the 2026 midterm results. Things you buy through our links may earn Vox Media a commission. Given that President Donald…
- Trump Admin Says Truth Social Paywall Does Not Violate ConstitutionNov 02, 2026 at 02:41 PM EST The Trump administration has hit back at a lawsuit that claims charging Truth Social users $100,000 a month for early access to President Donald Trump’s posts is unconstitutional, calling the complaint…
- Comment: For the Democrats, the last easy day was yesterday. Tomorrow will be tougher.On Nov. 3, the United States held its midterm elections, where Democrats were expected to take back the House of Representatives. This was partly because Republican President Donald Trump was massively unpopular for a number of reasons…
- ‘I wasn’t on the ballot’: Trump absolves himself as ‘Blue tsunami’ hits Washington DC in midtermsWASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump has sought to absolve himself as Republicans face a Blue Tsunami with the Democrats projected to flip the US House of Representatives and gain majorly in the Senate after the Mid-term polls. Posting on…
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Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
28%chance
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions