How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (11/8-11/14)
26.3median
-850
Median 26.3Middle half 23.1 – 29.5
Install
How many ties will J.D. Vance break in 2026?
The odds
2.19median
0.509.50
Median 2.19Middle half 1.22 – 3.91
How the odds have moved
Median: 2.47 on Oct 19, 2.19 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% | ▲ 1 | 34¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 1.9K |
| 2 | 22% | ▲ 1 | 20¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 2.0K |
| 3 | 15% | ▲ 1 | 12¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 78.00 |
| 4 | 7% | ▲ 1 | 5¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 209 |
| 5 | 5% | 3¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 5.00 | |
| 6 | 5% | 3¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 1.00 | |
| 7 | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | |||
| 8 | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | |||
| 9 | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | 19.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: J.D. Vance
Search ›- Neocon Marc Thiessen Denies Reality And Lies About J.D. VanceThat Washington Post content creator Marc Thiessen is out here lying wouldn’t be worth commenting on if not for his reportedly being one of the main people who advised President Trump that striking Iran would be a good time for all. So he…
- The Wall Street Journal Pretends To Not Understand J.D. Vance Or IranSometimes you can watch an argument wind through a topic like a river creating oxbows, taking care to divert around the points that don’t help. The Wall Street Journal has just done exactly this, offering what reads like a third of an…
- Donald Trump Jr. Sucking Up to J.D. Vance in Hopes of Becoming His VP: ReportDonald Trump Jr. is reportedly sucking up to VP J.D. Vance, according to Rob Shuter's Substack page Naughty But Nice. Vance has blamed the Iran war for a GOP wipeout. BY: MEGA After the Republicans suffered a humiliating loss in the…
- J.D. Vance 'Waving Goodbye to 2028' After Midterm Losses, Former Trump Official Says, as Marco Rubio Gains BuzzAfter the devastating midterm election results, a major political shift has disrupted the outlook for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination as the battered GOP shifts its focus from Vice President J.D. Vance to Secretary of State…
- J.D. Vance Unsure Whether Donald Trump Would Endorse Him for President in 2028: 'I Don't Know, Man'J.D. Vance admitted he wasn’t sure whether Donald Trump would immediately endorse him for a 2028 presidential run. During an interview broadcast on Monday, October 19, on the 2WAY platform, Vice President J.D. Vance said he wasn't sure…
- Hunter Biden Jokes 'I Am Hearing That J.D. Vance's Next Move Is To Change His Name a Fourth Time to Ron Devancis' After Republican Midterm LossHunter Biden, 56, the son of former U.S. President Joe Biden, made fun of J.D. Vance, the current vice president, 42. His comments came after Republicans lost their majority in Congress in the recent midterm elections. He took to X on…
- J.D. Vance points to cause of Republican midterm disasterMany Americans who voted Republican in the 2024 presidential election switched to the Democrats in the midterms over the war on Iran and related grievances, US Vice President J.D. Vance has said. Republicans lost control of both chambers…
- J.D. Vance Blames Iran for Republican Midterm WipeoutRobby Soave and Amber Duke | 11.4.2026 4:15 PM In this segment of Free Media, Reason Senior Editor Robby Soave and Daily Caller Editor in Chief Amber Duke break down the 2026 midterm election results and react to Vice President J.D…
- Lara Trump Supports J.D. Vance's Criticism of Iran War After Stunning Midterms Loss: 'This Was a Big Problem for Americans'Lara Trump supported J.D. Vance's criticism of the conflict in Iran. Nov. 5 2026, Published 7:31 p.m. ET Lara Trump voiced her support for Vice President J.D. Vance's claim that the Iran war was why Republicans lost in the midterms…
- Donald Trump Casts Doubt on Whether J.D. Vance Will Run for President in 2028: 'Maybe He Won't'President Donald Trump cast doubt on Vice President J.D. Vance's 2028 presidential prospects, remarking, "Maybe he won't run," just hours after Vance publicly blamed the administration's war with Iran for major Republican losses in the…
- J.D. Vance Blames Iran for Republican Midterm Wipeout (opinion)In this segment of Free Media, Reason Senior Editor Robby Soave and Daily Caller Editor in Chief Amber Duke break down the 2026 midterm election results and react to Vice President J.D. Vance's explanation for the blowout. If you enjoy…
- J.D. Vance Reportedly Leads Effort to End Trump Era Alongside President's Own Son Don Jr. and Tucker Carlson After Midterm Defeat: 'The Call Is Coming From Inside the House'Vance blamed the GOP loss on Trump's Iran war. BY: MEGA Last identified Vice President J.D. Vance as the “frontman” for this effort. On Wednesday, the vice president released a statement that put the GOP wipeout blame squarely on Trump’s…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions