Will Wales announce an independence referendum? (Before 2030)

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Dec 31, 2029 · $165 traded · $1 at stake · prices read 9 h ago

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The odds

21%chance▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Yes: 28% on Oct 19, 21% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Yes 21% ▲ 1 17¢ 24¢ $4.17 803

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Wales

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  • North Wales International Music Festival - BBC National Orchestra of WalesBBC Music Events · 7 days agoThis concert opens in a world of shimmering pastoral beauty with Vaughan Williams’ The Lark Ascending. Inspired by English folk song and the open countryside, its serene lyricism and sense of timeless stillness remain among the most…
  • Fantastique - BBC National Orchestra of WalesBBC Music Events · 7 days agoThis programme traces a journey from momentary spring light to one of the most vivid musical imaginations of the nineteenth century. Opening with Lilli Boulanger’s D’un matin de printemps, which captures the energy of a spring morning…
  • Burnham's devolution plan won't work in Wales, former Labour minister saysBBC News · 7 days agoPrime Minister Andy Burnham's call for governments to hand more powers down to regions and cities "just doesn't work" in Wales, a former Welsh government minister has said. Lee Waters is one of two ex-Labour ministers who have criticised…
  • Wales face Denmark and Italy again on League A returnBBC Sport · 7 days agoWales were relegated from League A in May 2025 by a 1-0 defeat in Denmark Wales will face Denmark, Italy and Iceland when they return to Nations League A next year. Rhian Wilkinson's side were beaten twice by both the Danes and the…
  • Okland takes full-time role as Wales' PRB chairwomanBBC Sport · 8 days agoNorwegian financier has served two three-year terms on the PRB Marianne Okland has been confirmed as the full-time chairwoman of Welsh rugby's Professional Rugby Board (PRB). Okland first joined the PRB as an independent non-executive…
  • How will Wales fare on Nations Championship return?BBC Sport · 8 days agoWales have won three Tests under head coach Steve Tandy Wales will start their international season next weekend when they return to the Nations Championship. Steve Tandy's side face four games as they host Japan, New Zealand and Australia…
  • Wales not finished product but all roads lead to 2029BBC Sport · 8 days agoWales won four matches in 2026, three more than in 2025 Head coach Sean Lynn admits Wales are far from the finished product but says he has been hugely encouraged by their WXV showings. An eight-try mauling of South Africa in Cardiff and…
  • Wales thrashed as Australia score record 21 triesBBC Sport · 9 days agoReigning champions Australia rack up the biggest score in international history as they hammer Wales 124-6 in the Rugby League World Cup. Wales thrashed as Australia score record 21 tries. Video, 00:05:29Wales thrashed as Australia score…
  • Wales in fight to retain rising female starsBBC Sport · 9 days agoWales will face Norway in a two-legged play-off final in December as they attempt to reach the Women's World Cup for the first time Wales are facing a fight to hold on to some of their most promising female footballers amid an…
  • Rare short-necked oil beetle rediscovered in Wales after nearly 60 yearsthe Guardian · 9 days agoA rare beetle has been rediscovered in Wales after nearly 60 years, conservationists have said. The short-necked oil beetle, driven to the brink of extinction in Britain due to habitat loss over the course of the 20th century, has been…
  • Wales hit by Australia century in World Cup recordBBC Sport · 9 days agoJaime Chapman scored a first-half hat-trick for Australia against Wales Tries: Kernick, Chapman 6, Church 2, Southwell, Sergis 4, Apps, Paki, Joseph 2, Upton 2, Nizza Goals: Southwell 20 Tries: Travis Goals: Preston Rampant Australia…
  • Australia v Wales: Women’s Rugby League World Cup – livethe Guardian · 9 days agoUpdates as the Jillaroos and Wales meet at CommBank Stadium Kick-off time in Sydney is 3.40pm local/4.40am GMT Any thoughts? Get in touch with an email Jillaroos: Plenty of changes for the hosts, including an almost entirely new pack, as…

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions