When will Wales call a snap election?

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $1.2K traded · $118 at stake · prices read 17 min ago

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The odds

14%Before Jan 1, 2028
  • Before Jul 1, 20273%
  • Before Jan 1, 202814%

How the odds have moved

Before Jul 1, 2027: 3% on Oct 20, 3% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Before Jul 1, 2027 3% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 2.6K
Before Jan 1, 2028 14% 11¢ 18¢ $5.56 7.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Wales, Senedd

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  • Wales has a 'housing emergency', Senedd committee hearsNation.Cymru · 10 days agoElla Groves, ICNN Senedd Reporter The need for affordable homes in Wales is “absolutely colossal” a Senedd committee has heard. Clarissa Corbisiero, deputy chief executive of Community Housing Cymru, made the comments in the a housing…
  • Senedd and Wales Millennium Centre connect to low-carbon heat networkNation.Cymru · 11 days agoThe Senedd, Tŷ Hywel and Wales Millennium Centre have connected to a £15.5 million heat network that Cardiff Council says could cut their heating emissions by up to 80%. The system supplies heating and hot water using surplus heat from…
  • North Wales Crusaders secure RFL futureBBC Sport · 10 days agoA previous incarnation of Crusaders played in Super League between 2009 and 2011 North Wales Crusaders have secured a place in the Rugby Football League (RFL) Championship for 2027 despite initially withdrawing their bid for a licence…
  • Wales wing Mee signs new Scarlets contractBBC Sport · 11 days agoEllis Mee joined Scarlets from English Championship side Nottingham in 2024 Wales wing Ellis Mee has signed a new contract with Scarlets. The 23-year-old has made 43 appearances for the Parc y Scarlets club since joining from Nottingham in…
  • Lynn hails grit of 13-player Wales in Japan winBBC Sport · 10 days agoWales won the first Test against Japan 17-0 Wales head coach Sean Lynn has praised the grit shown by his side during their five-try victory over Japan. Wales looked comfortable in the WXV contest at 29-5 until replacements Keira Bevan and…
  • Wales complete Japan double to end WXV on a highBBC Sport · 10 days agoWales are celebrating back-to-back Test victories for the first time since June 2024 Tries: N Metcalfe, K Jones, Williams 2, Tuipulotu Cons: George 2 Wales completed a WXV double over Japan with a comfortable 29-5 victory in Kumagaya City…
  • Former Wales and Lions wing Jones dies age 81BBC Sport · 10 days agoKeri Jones made the switch from rugby union to rugby league in 1968 Former dual-code Wales and British and Irish Lions wing Keri Jones has died at the age of 81. Jones also represented Wales at the 1966 British Empire and Commonwealth…
  • England thrash Wales to begin World Cup defenceBBC Sport · 11 days agoEngland thrash Wales in Wheelchair Rugby League World Cup Rob Hawkins said England "were not playing to our standards" despite beginning their Wheelchair World Cup title defence with a commanding 98-18 win over Wales. Two-time winners…
  • Local devolution decisions rest solely with Scotland and Wales, first ministers tell Burnhamthe Guardian · 10 days agoJohn Swinney and Rhun ap Iorwerth say devolving power further is up to Holyrood and Senedd – not Westminster Scotland and Wales’s first ministers have told Andy Burnham that decisions on local devolution rest solely with their parliaments…
  • Two Wales changes to face Australia at World CupBBC Sport · 11 days agoWales round out their debut Rugby League World Cup against champions Australia Head coach Tom Brindle has made two personnel changes to his squad for Wales' final 2026 Rugby League World Cup fixture against reigning champions Australia on…
  • Wales' 2029 World Cup road map starts with three WXV winsBBC Sport · 10 days agoWales head coach Sean Lynn praised the attitude and effort of his players as they secured a 29-5 win over Japan in the WXV Global Series. The performance sealed back-to-back wins over Japan, with Wales winning three of their four WXV…
  • Wales aim to cap 2026 revival with Japan doubleBBC Sport · 11 days agoWales are ranked 11th in the world, one place above Japan Wales have the opportunity to finish the international year on a high on Saturday as they seek to complete the double over Japan. Sean Lynn's side have already racked up two wins…

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Nov 16, 2027even chance by
  • Before Dec 1, 20264%▲ 1
  • Before Jan 1, 20278%▲ 2
  • Before Feb 1, 202713%▲ 2
13 more
  • Before Mar 1, 202714%▼ 3
  • Before Apr 1, 202723%▼ 2
  • Before May 1, 202725%▼ 2
  • Before Jun 1, 202735%▲ 2
  • Before Jul 1, 202739%
  • Before Aug 1, 202740%▼ 1
  • Before Sep 1, 202742%▼ 1
  • Before Oct 1, 202746%
  • Before Nov 1, 202749%▲ 1
  • Before Dec 1, 202752%▲ 3
  • Before Jan 1, 202856%▲ 2
  • Before Jul 1, 202866%▲ 5
  • Before Jan 1, 202970%
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions