What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration? (Before Jan 20, 2029)

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Jan 20, 2029 · $3.4K traded · $1.2K at stake · prices read 29 min ago

The odds

26%World Trade Organization

World Trade Organization26%
OECD20%
World Bank Group17%
International Monetary Fund16%
Interpol14%
United Nations12%
Inter-American Development Bank11%
International Atomic Energy Agency6%
G206%
G74%

How the odds have moved

World Trade Organization: 27% on Oct 20, 26% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
World Trade Organization	26%	24¢	28¢	$3.57	5.5K
OECD	20%	16¢	23¢	$4.35	1.1K
World Bank Group	17%	14¢	20¢	$5.00	770
International Monetary Fund	16%	12¢	20¢	$5.00	264
Interpol	14%	10¢	18¢	$5.56	1.4K
United Nations	12%	10¢	15¢	$6.67	9.1K
Inter-American Development Bank	11%	6¢	15¢	$6.67	493
International Atomic Energy Agency	6%	2¢	10¢	$10.10	1.2K
G20	6%	2¢	9¢	$10.64	1.2K
G7	4%	1¢	7¢	$15.15	1.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: World Trade Organization, World Bank Group

Search ›

Vietnam affirms its integration mark at the World Trade Organization.vietnam.vn · 3 days agoVietnam views the RSCSTM not only as an obligation for transparency but also as an opportunity to objectively assess achievements, listen to member opinions, and identify areas for further improvement. In his opening remarks, Ambassador…
Belize seeks to reduce Trade costs and expand Export opportunities following World Trade Organization mission@belizemedia · 3 days agoBy Zoila Palma: The Government of Belize is working to reduce trade costs, strengthen local businesses and expand export opportunities following a three-day World Trade Organization (WTO) follow-up mission held in Belmopan from November 3…
Sonatrach and World Bank Group sign MOU to advance climate initiatives in AfricaChemical Engineering · 3 days agoChemEngOnline Sonatrach and World Bank Group sign MOU to advance climate initiatives in Africa The MOU aims to identify and develop partnership and cooperation opportunities focused on reducing gas flaring and methane emissions, as well as…
NEMA, World Bank Group Collaborates On Disaster Risk ManagementIndependent Newspaper Nigeria · 4 days agoThe National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) and the World Bank Group have reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening collaboration in disaster risk management, resilience building and emergency preparedness in Nigeria. This followed…
Ex-ADB official Um Woo-chong named World Bank Group vice presidentThe Korea Times · 4 days agoUm Woo-chong, newly appointed vice president of the World Bank Group / Courtesy of Ministry of Finance and Economy Um Woo-chong, a veteran international administrator and former senior official at the Asian Development Bank, has been…
World Bank Group appoints Um Woo-chong as vice president — Korea HeraldUA.NEWS · 4 days agoUA.NEWS World Bank Group appoints Um Woo-chong as vice president — Korea Herald South Korea’s Ministry of Economy and Finance reported that the World Bank Group has appointed Um Woo-chong as vice president and director general of the…
Ferzina Banaji appointed senior communications and external relations officer at World Bank GroupIndian Television Dot Com · 5 days agoIndian Television Dot Com WASHINGTON: Ferzina Banaji has a new brief and a bigger map The communicator who spent years telling the world about climate change, water and sustainable development has joined the World Bank Group as senior…
Singapore and the World Bank Group Launch ASEAN Power Grid Mobilisation PartnershipMinistry of Finance (MOF) · 6 days ago- Singapore and the World Bank Group Launch ASEAN Power Grid Mobilisation Partnership The Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry (METI), the Ministry of Finance (MOF), and the World Bank Group launched a three-year ASEAN Power Grid…
World Bank Group launches digital strategy for developing nationsDeveloping Telecoms · 6 days agoDevelopment bank the World Bank Group has launched what it calls its first digital strategy, bringing together its public and private sector capabilities to help developing countries expand affordable digital access, improve services, and…
Sri Lanka launches AgriConnect plan with $665 million from World Bank Group and IFAD to support 900,000 farmers by 2030@fundsforngos · 7 days agoDated: November 3, 2026 The initiative also reflects the World Bank Group and IFAD emphasis on connecting smallholder farmers with market systems, financing, and business services. It is described as bringing together government…
World Bank supports Bangladesh in boosting learning for 26 million children@thepeninsulaqatar · 32 h agoDhaka, Bangladesh: The World Bank Group's Board of Executive Directors has approved 300 million U.S. dollars in financing to improve learning outcomes for 26 million children studying from pre-primary level to grade 5 in Bangladesh…
Financing for Development and the Spirit of Monterrey: A Beacon of Multilateralism for Improving Global Economic GovernanceUnited Nations · 2 days agoMauricio Escanero served as Facilitator of the Preparatory Committee for the International Conference on Financing for Development and the Monterrey Consensus from 1999 to 2002. He is currently serving as Ambassador of Mexico to Israel. He…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onWhite House, United States Congress, The New York Times

Trading closesJan 20, 2029 10:00 AM ET

Traded$3.4K (22,558 contracts)

This week$105

At stake$1.2K

In the news2 headlines today, 11 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the United States completely withdraws from G7 before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions