U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?
99%October 31
- October 3199%▲ 84
- December 3199%▲ 23
Install
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
The odds
2%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 6% on Oct 20, 2% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $43.48 | $3.7M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Cuba
Search ›- Trump’s Cuban Revolution Is Stuck in LimboNov 02, 2026 at 05:22 AM EST Time travel doesn’t exist as far as we know, but take a visit to Cuba and you’ll certainly feel like you’re stepping into history. The U.S. has maintained an economic embargo on the island just 90 miles off its…
- 11/1/2026: Michigan Senate Race; Cuba in Crisis; WembyCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. 11/1/2026: Michigan…
- Cuba in Crisis | Sunday on 60 MinutesThis Sunday, 60 Minutes' Matt Gutman travels to Cuba to report on a country in freefall. The Trump administration imposed new economic sanctions that it says target Cuba's corrupt communist regime, restricting its oil supply and access to…
- 60 Minutes Transcript: Intense U.S. pressure deepens Cuba's humanitarian, economic crisisNovember 1, 2026 / 7:45 PM EST / CBS News Cuba has been under communist rule since the 1960s. The Cuban government employs most of the country's workers and runs the hospitals and schools. opposition parties are illegal. For decades, a…
- Waltz reveals new details about fiery clash with Cuban diplomat at UNU.S. ambassador Mike Waltz discusses the security warning issued by the U.S. embassy in Moscow and details his heated exchange at the United Nations with a Cuban diplomat. Waltz reveals new details about fiery clash with Cuban diplomat at…
- Cuba increasingly isolated from the global economy amid tough new U.S. sanctionsCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Inside Cuba under…
- Cuba's doctors confront medicine and supply shortages along with power outages amid ongoing U.S. sanctionsNovember 1, 2026 / 7:45 PM EST / CBS News Cuban doctors rushed a 2-month-old baby, dehydrated and suffering from malnutrition, to the intensive care unit. "We have to make do with formulas made from malanga — a starchy root vegetable — and…
- Mike Waltz reveals Cuban diplomat shoved US staffer, slapped phone away in explosive UN clashU.S. ambassador Mike Waltz discusses the security warning issued by the U.S. embassy in Moscow and details his heated exchange at the United Nations with a Cuban diplomat. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz recalled on "The…
- Hialeah Mayor launches crackdown on businesses with ties to Cuban governmentJanuary 20, 2026 / 5:11 PM EST / CBS Miami One week ago today, on his very first day as the mayor of Hialeah, Bryan Calvo vowed to crack down on businesses with ties to the Cuban government. Mayor Calvo says 290 businesses here in Hialeah…
- New Cuban Immigration Policies: Critical Insights for Cubans AbroadSunday, November 1, 2026 by Christopher Ramirez As of November 1, 2026, Cuba is implementing significant changes to its immigration policies that will impact citizens both on the island and abroad. These new regulations, which include the…
- Trump's Bold Promise on Cuba Sparks Skepticism and Irony Among CubansSunday, November 1, 2026 by Emma Garcia Donald Trump's recent vow that no member of the Castro family will hold power in Cuba by the end of his presidency has triggered a wave of reactions among readers of CiberCuba. Many comments shared a…
- Cuban educator undertakes academic residency at a Russian universityChapis Cabrera serves as the Director of Economics at the Carlos Rafael Rodriguez University of Cienfuegos (UCf) and is a doctoral candidate in the Local and Territorial Development program. She began her residency on September 23 as part…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions