Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

Polymarket World › The Americas Closes Dec 31 · $125K traded · $13.8K at stake · prices read 24 min ago

Embed

The odds

8%chance▼ 3

How the odds have moved

Yes: 5% on Oct 20, 8% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 2, 11 PM ET9% → 14%
  2. Oct 25, 11 PM ET5% → 14%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Yes 8% ▼ 3 6¢ 10¢ $10.00 $125K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Venezuela, Maduro, María Corina Machado

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  • María Corina Machado renews call for the release of political prisoners outside a Venezuelan prisonTemple Daily Telegram · 3 days agoVenezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado is calling on acting President Delcy Rodríguez's government to release all political prisoners. On Friday, she joined families of detainees outside a prison, urging for their freedom…
  • María Corina Machado’s Return Accelerates ‘D-Day’ in VenezuelaOrinoco Tribune · 3 days agoBy Bruno Sgarzini – Nov 4, 2026 “She could have avoided the show, the airports are there,” Delcy Rodríguez said a day after María Corina Machado returned to Caracas accompanied by a caravan of cars during the peak hour of the weekend. A…
  • Venezuela welcomes opposition leader María Corina Machado homeGlobal Voices · 5 days agoThousands of people took to the Valle-Coche highway in Caracas to welcome the opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado, who returned to Venezuela after 16 months in hiding and ten months in exile. The massive…
  • Stephen Miller Unleashes Fire Over Venezuela Strike: 'Damn Straight' We Seized Maduro to Protect Americaredstate.com · 3 days agoSenior White House advisor Stephen Miller delivered an unapologetic, full-throated defense of the operation that captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in a recent appearance on CNN. That defense came about…
  • ¿Regresa la “Chavidad”?Fox News · 4 days agoFox News Delcy Rodríguez arranca las festividades navideñas este 1 de noviembre en medio del regreso de María Corina Machado
  • Venezuela Political PrisonersGoshen News · 3 days agoGoshen News Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado greets a relative of a political prisoner outside El Rodeo prison in Guatire, Venezuela, Friday, Nov. 6, 2026. . Halloween trick-or-treating was Saturday, Oct. 31. With the…
  • APTOPIX Venezuela Political PrisonersPost Register · 3 days agoPost Register - Manage Subscription (Pay Your Bill, Vacation Request, Update Account Info) Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, center back, stands beside relatives of inmates outside El Rodeo prison in Guatire, Venezuela…
  • María Corina Machado Launches Plan to Aid Voter Registration for Venezuela’s 8 Million RefugeesBreitbart · 7 days agoVente Venezuela, the center-right political party of opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado, announced a plan recently to help identify major Venezuelan population centers around the world with the intent of…
  • Machado Joins Families at Venezuela PrisonThe Rio Times · 3 days agoVenezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, who won the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for her campaign for democracy, went to the El Rodeo I prison near Caracas on Friday 6 November 2026. She joined families who have kept a vigil there for…
  • How Many More U-Turns From María Corina Machado?Orinoco Tribune · 7 days agoBy Daniel Ruiz Bracamont – Oct 31, 2026 Machado’s return was less heroic than her narrative, and her insistence on being the unquestioned next ruler has left her isolated and backtracking. Hours later, at the White House, Donald Trump…
  • Machado visits camp outside notorious Venezuelan prisonMacau Business · 3 days agoVenezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado visited relatives of political prisoners camping outside a notorious detention facility on Friday, after her recent return from exile. Machado’s homecoming has unsettled Venezuela’s…
  • The Destruction of Venezuela’s Economy under Chávez and MaduroMises Institute · 3 days agoIn the Venezuelan case, the first beneficiaries were the state and its circle of associates, while those who bore the effects last were workers, teachers, and retirees, whose incomes lost purchasing power before they could spend them in…

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Venezuela leader end of 2026?

94%Nicolás Maduro
  • Nicolás Maduro94%
  • Delcy Rodríguez6%
  • No Head of State<1%
13 more
  • Edmundo González<1%
  • María Corina Machado<1%
  • Marco Rubio<1%
  • Pete Hegseth<1%
  • Diosdado Cabello Rondón<1%
  • Dinorah Figuera<1%
  • Donald Trump<1%
  • Vladimir Padrino López<1%
  • Jorge Rodríguez<1%
  • Evan Pettus<1%
  • Frank Donovan<1%
  • Dan Caine<1%
  • Richard Grenell<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions