U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?
99%October 31
- October 3199%▲ 84
- December 3199%▲ 23
Install
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
The odds
3%chance▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 3% on Oct 20, 3% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 4¢ | $27.78 | $203K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Venezuela, Maduro, Machado
Search ›- Machado's return jolts Venezuela's fight for changeMaría Corina Machado is back in Venezuela, and her return instantly sharpens the country’s already tense political moment. The opposition figure had spent months in exile. Now she is back at a time when July elections are possible, giving…
- María Corina Machado Launches Plan to Aid Voter Registration for Venezuela’s 8 Million RefugeesVente Venezuela, the center-right political party of opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado, announced a plan recently to help identify major Venezuelan population centers around the world with the intent of…
- Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado calls for new electionsVenezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado returns to push for new elections while interim leader Delcy Rodríguez signals that pressure for a democratic transition is felt. Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado calls…
- María Corina Machado thanks Donald Trump and Marco Rubio for their actions in Venezuela - videoVenezuelan opposition leader, María Corina Machado, has thanked the US president, Donald Trump, and US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, for their role in ousting their previous president. On 3 January, Trump administration captured Nicolás…
- Elections pose next test for VenezuelaInterim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez held a rare address last week in which she vowed to hold elections. Venezuelaâs next big test will be whether it can turn the Trump administrationâs plan for elections into a genuine…
- Venezuela's Maria Corina Machado hopeful for 2027 presidential electionBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Opposition leader…
- Venezuela’s oil buildout faces worker shortageDecades of mismanagement and corruption have hollowed out the sector, while a government crackdown and an economic crisis led to a mass exodus. Venezuela’s oil buildout faces worker shortage A shortage of oil and gas workers in Venezuela…
- Trump addresses midterm elections, making claims on Greenland, Venezuela, and Abdul Al SayadPresident Trump addresses the upcoming midterm elections, outlining achievements and criticizing opponents. The speech details claims regarding Greenland, oil from Venezuela, and Michigan Senate nominee Abdul Al Sayad. Trump addresses…
- Pressure grows for Venezuela's authoritarian regime as opposition leader Machado returnsMaria Corina Machado's return to Venezuela presents a fresh challenge for Trump-backed President Delcy Rodríguez and reignites questions over the prospect of new elections. Pressure grows for Venezuela's authoritarian regime as opposition…
- Venezuela opposition leader María Machado calls for elections upon returnVenezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado is calling for elections to be held next year. During a news conference in Caracas on Wednesday, the Nobel Peace Prize winner said the country's move toward democracy was "irreversible"…
- Trump rips ex-lawyer Alina Habba’s ‘obnoxious’ $50M deal with pardoned Venezuelan banker’s familyPresident Trump tore into his former personal attorney Alina Habba on Saturday night, calling her reported $50 million contract with the family of a Venezuelan banker he later pardoned “totally obnoxious and outrageous.” “I thought it was…
- Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado returns to Venezuela after nearly a year in exileVenezuelan opposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado made an unexpected public appearance inside her home country on Sunday after spending nearly a year in exile. The prominent political figure arrived at a church located…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions