Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?

Polymarket World › The Americas Closes Dec 31 · $2K traded · $4.4K at stake · prices read 23 min ago

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The odds

35%Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
  • Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan35%
  • Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar13%▲ 1
  • Ricardo Ruiz Velasco8%▲ 1
  • Juan Pablo Ledezma8%
  • Juan Reyes Mejía González7%▼ 1
  • Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez6%
  • Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar5%

How the odds have moved

Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan: 8% on Oct 20, 35% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 4, 11 PM ETHugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan: 25% → 34%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  2. Oct 30, 11 PM ETHugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan: 12% → 27%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
✓ Audias Flores-Silva >99% ▲ 23 1¢ 99¢ $1.01 $5.9K
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan 35% 8¢ 62¢ $1.62 $5.5K
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar 13% ▲ 1 5¢ 20¢ $5.00 $8K
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco 8% ▲ 1 6¢ 9¢ $10.64 $64K
Juan Pablo Ledezma 8% 6¢ 9¢ $11.11 $3.4K
Juan Reyes Mejía González 7% ▼ 1 6¢ 7¢ $14.29 $38.9K
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez 6% 5¢ 7¢ $14.29 $60.8K
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar 5% 4¢ 6¢ $16.39 $13K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan, Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar, Ricardo Ruiz Velasco

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions