Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?

Polymarket World › China & Taiwan Closes Dec 31 · $1.1K today · $165K traded · $25.6K at stake · prices read 2 min ago

The odds

Dec 5, 2027even chance by

October 31<1%
December 3190%▲ 11

How the odds have moved

October 31: 1% on Oct 20, <1% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
June 30	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$29.7K
July 31	<1%			0¢		$1.8K
September 30	<1%			0¢		$1.2K
October 31	<1%			0¢		$741
December 31	90%	▲ 11	89¢	90¢	$1.11	$131K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Takaichi

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Takaichi vs. the tax 'rebels'Asia Times · 3 days agoJapan’s House of Representatives approved the consumption tax cut on Friday, November 6, but the government’s accomplishment was overshadowed by the decision by four senior Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers — most notably former prime…
Takaichi Voices Concern Over EU Plan to Favor European EVsSeoul Economic Daily · 4 days agoJapanese Leader Raised Issue in Phone Call With France's Macron Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed concern to French President Emmanuel Macron over the European Union's plan to give preferential treatment to European-made…
Takaichi administration announces emergency cyberdefense packageThe Japan Times · 4 days agoThe Japan Times Takaichi administration announces emergency cyberdefense package Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government unveiled a package of emergency measures Friday to address Japan’s cybersecurity crisis, ranging from establishing…
Japan's Takaichi pushes for tougher cybersecurity laws as attacks surgeNikkei Asia · 3 days agoNikkei Asia Japan's Takaichi pushes for tougher cybersecurity laws as attacks surge Government seeks help from OpenAI, Anthropic to help thwart threats TOKYO -- Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has urged her ministers to strengthen a…
China calls for correction of Takaichi's comment on TaiwanNHK WORLD · 3 days agoA comment Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae made about Taiwan one year ago has resurfaced. An official in China is again urging her to "correct" what she said. Takaichi spoke about Taiwan in the Diet on November 7 last year. She said a…
Japanese prime minister Takaichi todayFXStreet · 4 days agoDownload The Full Sunrise Market Commentary KBC's Market Research Desk publishes a number of short-term reports. AUD/USD hits a three-week low during the Asian session on Friday as the RBA’s dovish shift and a rout in equity markets weigh…
Sanae Takaichi Expresses Concern to Macron Over European EV SubsidiesJKN · 4 days agoJapanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi conveyed strong concern to French President Emmanuel Macron during a telephone call regarding the European Union's industrial policy, which favors European-made products. The two leaders agreed to…
PM Takaichi gave fewer Diet budget committee responses than 4 predecessorsThe Mainichi · 3 days agoNovember 7, 2026 (Mainichi Japan) TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has given fewer responses during key parliamentary committee deliberations than her four immediate predecessors, according to an analysis by Kyodo News…
China Urges Japan to Correct Takaichi's Taiwan Remarks on 1st AnniversarySBS World News · 4 days agonews.sbs.co.kr
BREAKING NEWS: Japan to promote dialogue with China in nat'l interest: PM TakaichiJapan Wire by Kyodo News · 4 days agoRead full story here Plans unveiled to bring Nagasaki's A-bombed Virgin Mary to U.S. ANA says data on 37,800 customers leaked in hacking Japan urges U.S. to tighten discipline after another U.S. Marine arrested Tokyo embraces Halloween…
A Year After Takaichi's Taiwan Remark, China-Japan Ties Stay FrozenSeoul Economic Daily · 4 days agoOne year after Prime Minister Takaichi's Taiwan contingency remark, China-Japan relations remain frozen as Beijing keeps up economic and diplomatic… One year has passed since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested Japan could…
What keeps Takaichi defying political gravity?The Japan Times · 5 days agoThe Japan Times As Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi begins her second year in office, voters have plenty of reasons to be dissatisfied with the job she’s done so far. Living costs remain high, relations with China are strained and her…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$165K

Today$1.1K

This week$13.7K

At stake$25.6K

In the news10 headlines today, 57 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sanae Takaichi meets with Xi Jinping between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Takaichi and Jinping are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions