U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?
99%October 31
- October 3199%▲ 84
- December 3199%▲ 23
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Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
The odds
1%December 31
- December 311%
How the odds have moved
December 31: 4% on Oct 20, 1% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2025 | <1% | 0¢ | $2.8M | |||
| January 31 | <1% | 0¢ | $8.4M | |||
| March 31 | <1% | 0¢ | $2.8M | |||
| December 31 | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $66.67 | $301K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Venezuela, Maduro
Search ›- The Destruction of Venezuela’s Economy under Chávez and MaduroIn the Venezuelan case, the first beneficiaries were the state and its circle of associates, while those who bore the effects last were workers, teachers, and retirees, whose incomes lost purchasing power before they could spend them in…
- Mysterious billionaire shows off ‘America’s oil’ — and Trump’s VenezuelaBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. A visit to the…
- Stephen Miller Unleashes Fire Over Venezuela Strike: 'Damn Straight' We Seized Maduro to Protect AmericaSenior White House advisor Stephen Miller delivered an unapologetic, full-throated defense of the operation that captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in a recent appearance on CNN. That defense came about…
- The Destruction Of Venezuela’s Economy Under Chávez And Maduro – OpEdIn the Venezuelan case, the first beneficiaries were the state and its circle of associates, while those who bore the effects last were workers, teachers, and retirees, whose incomes lost purchasing power before they could spend them in…
- Florida’s most Venezuelan city put the Republican Party on noticeOf all the places that got swept up in the Democratic “blue wave,” one of the most unlikely was the heart of the Venezuelan diaspora in the U.S. Doral, a city in South Florida often called “Doralzuela” for its large concentration of…
- CNN investigation uncovers construction flaws in public housing towers that collapsed during Venezuela quakesThe day after massive dual earthquakes shattered Venezuela, Ailin Quiroz made her way toward the coast to search for her sister. She found only a mountain of rubble where her apartment building had once stood. Quiroz climbed through the…
- From palace to prison rabbi: Maduro’s spiritual journey and his wife’s deteriorating healthMaduro reads the Bible and Quran and meets a rabbi in Brooklyn jail, The New York Times reports; his wife has lost two teeth and over 11 kilograms, and her lawyers say she may have had a heart attack and was hit by pepper spray during an…
- Special Report Part 5: What Was Life Like Under Nicolás Maduro?Independent news and opinion from a constitutional perspective. Your morning advantage. Critical news, fearless analysis, and the truth mainstream media won't tell you—delivered before your first coffee. Special Report Part 5: What Was…
- Special Report 6: Was Nicolás Maduro Much More Brutal Than Hugo Chávez?Independent news and opinion from a constitutional perspective. Your morning advantage. Critical news, fearless analysis, and the truth mainstream media won't tell you—delivered before your first coffee. Special Report 6: Was Nicolás…
- EXPOSED: Guatemala’s Narco-Corruption Swamp Festers Under Bernardo ‘Maduro 2.0’ ArévaloGuatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo has emerged as the new Maduro of Latin America after rising to office through Biden-backed election fraud. Former Attorney General Pam Bondi drew attention to the role Arévalo’s government plays in…
- Jailed Maduro Hits 92% in Venezuela MarketTraders on Polymarket now put the chance that Nicolás Maduro, the jailed former president, is Venezuela’s head of state on 31 December at about 92%, up about 17 points in a week. That price sits awkwardly with the facts. Maduro was…
- Venezuela Protest Camp Ends After 10 MonthsRelatives of Venezuelan political prisoners closed their protest camp outside El Rodeo I, a prison near Caracas, on Sunday 8 November 2026 after about 300 days. Clippve, the Venezuelan committee campaigning for their release, says the…
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US strike on Colombia by...?
17%December 31
- December 3117%▲ 2
US military action against Cuba by...?
8%December 31
- December 318%▼ 4
Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?
9%December 31
- December 319%
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 6 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions