How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (11/8-11/14)
26.3median
-850
Median 26.3Middle half 23.1 – 29.5
Install
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
The odds
62%chance▼ 2
How the odds have moved
Yes: 74% on Oct 20, 62% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 4, 11 PM ET84% → 72%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Oct 29, 9 PM ET76% → 88%
- Oct 21, 6 PM ET71% → 64%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 62% | ▼ 2 | 60¢ | 64¢ | $1.56 | $24.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Philippine Senate, Sara Duterte
Search ›- VP Sara Duterte honors Yolanda victims in Tacloban ahead of All Souls' DayVice President Sara Duterte visited a memorial cemetery in Tacloban City to pay tribute to victims of Super Typhoon Yolanda, which devastated parts of the Visayas in November 2013. In a Facebook post on Saturday, Oct. 31, Duterte said she…
- The ‘maleta boys’ keep coming. Now, they’re implicating Sara Duterte'CHRIS'. An alleged bagman named Chris claims to have delivered suitcases of cash to Vice President Sara Duterte. Her spokesman denies it. Another alleged bagman who claims to have delivered suitcases of cash to Vice President Sara Duterte…
- LIST: Evidence submitted by prosecution to impeach court vs Sara DuterteDwight de Leon is a multimedia reporter who covers politics for Rappler. He is currently assigned to Congress, and has written stories on the Marcos Jr. presidency, the Commission on Elections, and local government units. His portfolio…
- Sara Duterte’s camp says VP replacement talks ‘premature, a distraction’ | ABS-CBN NewsThe camp of Vice President Sara Duterte on Thursday said talks of her potential replacement were “premature” and a “distraction from the serious issues.” Sara Duterte’s camp says VP replacement talks ‘premature, a distraction’ Your go-to…
- Luistro sees possible November end to Sara impeach trialLead public prosecutor Rep. Gerville Luistro (right) and private prosecutor Atty. Benjamin Tolosa (left) Lead public prosecutor and Batangas Rep. Gerville Luistro said that the trial proper of the ongoing impeachment against Vice President…
- Duterte honors victims of Yolanda, 1991 Ormoc flash flood in LeyteVice President Sara Duterte paid tribute to victims of two deadly disasters in Leyte, visiting memorial sites in Tacloban and Ormoc cities ahead of the anniversaries of Super Typhoon Yolanda and the 1991 Ormoc flash flood. According to the…
- Fire damages two classrooms at elementary school in RomblonCanada News Headline News Floyd Brenz., Philippine Canadian Inquirer November 01, 2026 Two classrooms at Jose M. Solis Elementary School in Barangay Camandag, Looc, Romblon, were damaged in a fire on Saturday afternoon, October 31. The…
- If convicted in impeachment trial, who will succeed Sara Duterte?VEEP. Vice President Sara Duterte waves to supporters as she arrives at the Quezon City Regional Trial Court for the arraignment of her grave threats case, on October 9, 2026. Even before Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial…
- FACT CHECK: No reports of SC order ousting MarcosClaim: The Supreme Court (SC) has ruled on a case against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., removing him from office. Why we fact-checked this: A YouTube video uploaded by the channel “PINAS BALITA TV” on October 26, 2026, made this claim…
- Philippines’ China hawk defence chief open to 2028 presidential showdown with V-P DutertePhilippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro says he will run for president in 2028 if he sees that he has a chance of winning. Published Oct 30, 2026, 04:55 PM Updated Oct 30, 2026, 07:10 PM MANILA – Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto…
- AI-altered document falsely places Philippine VP in Laos before drug bustA supposed foreign travel authority document issued by President Ferdinand Marcos's office to Duterte was shared on Facebook on October 20 (archived link). The letter apparently shows Duterte requested a leave of absence from September 29…
- [Market Rider] Things you may not know about Jinky LuistroIt was a beautiful Monday morning, bright and sunny. The traffic was surprisingly calm and smooth, even as pedestrians and vehicles were beginning to gather while I hurriedly made my way to the Monday Circle breakfast forum last October…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 6 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions