Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%
- November 30>99%▲ 11
- December 31>99%▲ 7
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Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
The odds
88%China
- China88%▲ 1
- No meeting by December 3110%▼ 2
- United States1%
- Russia1%▲ 1
- Other<1%
- Belarus<1%
- Turkey<1%
- Finland<1%
- Switzerland<1%
- Gulf country<1%
- South Korea<1%
- Japan<1%
3 more
- Australia<1%
- Other EU country<1%
- Ukraine<1%
How the odds have moved
China: 79% on Oct 20, 88% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 4, 11 PM ETChina: 81% → 87%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 88% | ▲ 1 | 88¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | $484K |
| No meeting by December 31 | 10% | ▼ 2 | 10¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | $592K |
| United States | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $159K | ||
| Russia | 1% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 1¢ | $177K | |
| Other | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $119K | ||
| Belarus | <1% | 0¢ | $97.3K | |||
| Turkey | <1% | 0¢ | $123K | |||
| Finland | <1% | 0¢ | $90.7K | |||
| Switzerland | <1% | 0¢ | $115K | |||
| Gulf country | <1% | 0¢ | $126K | |||
| South Korea | <1% | 0¢ | $79.1K | |||
| Japan | <1% | 0¢ | $73.4K | |||
| Australia | <1% | 0¢ | $80.7K | |||
| Other EU country | <1% | 0¢ | $95.8K | |||
| Ukraine | <1% | 0¢ | $72.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Ukraine, Russia, Zelensky
Search ›- Trump says ‘hatred’ between Zelensky, Putin is main obstacle to ending warPresident Trump said during a Sunday appearance on “60 minutes” that the “hatred between Zelensky and Putin” is one of the primary obstacles toward resolving the Russia-Ukraine war. CBS News’s Ross Douthat questioned Trump about his…
- Zelensky ‘thankful’ for Melania Trump’s Russia-Ukraine peace efforts | CNNUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tells CNN's Jake Tapper he is "thankful" for first lady Melania Trump's ceasefire efforts, specifically her White House event between both Russian and Ukrainian officials. The Metropolitan Police…
- Russia Recruiting Abducted Ukrainian Children Into Army, Zelensky SaysNov 06, 2026 at 06:07 AM EST Nov 06, 2026 at 08:29 AM EST Russia has recruited abducted Ukrainian children into its army, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said. Kyiv says Russia has taken more than 20,000 Ukrainian children from…
- Russia preparing major attack against Ukraine's bridges, critical infrastructure, Zelensky warnsIntelligence reports indicate that Russia is preparing to launch a large-scale attack against Ukraine's critical infrastructure, President Volodymyr Zelensky warned in his evening address on Nov. 6. The warning follows a barrage of Russian…
- Russia and Ukraine Keep Ignoring Donald TrumpNov 09, 2026 at 12:27 PM EST Russia and Ukraine traded strikes on each other's energy infrastructure into Monday, targeting sites President Donald Trump had decreed last month—without Kyiv and Moscow's agreement—to be off limits. The…
- Russia Brings In Gas Restrictions After Ukraine StrikesNov 09, 2026 at 10:51 AM EST Russia has imposed fuel restrictions in at least eight Russian regions after fresh Ukrainian strikes on the country's oil sector on the eve of a new round of U.S.-brokered peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv. A…
- The U.S. Must Reject Russian Narratives on UkraineThe Pentagon’s Best Space Weapon Isn’t a Program — It’s a Prize Trump and Netanyahu Need to Choose Victory on Iran Why the U.S. Should Rethink a Freeze on Taiwan Arms Sales What Trump Can Learn from Reagan’s Military Buildup A church…
- Zelenskiy speaks to Modi ahead of Ukraine-Russia talksPresident Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday spoke âto India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi ahead of trilateral talks with Russia and the US âin Abu Dhabi. Reporting by Yuliia Dysa, Sakshi âDayal Editing by Peter Graff and Tomasz Janowski…
- BBC Audio | Weekend | Ukraine-Russia talksRepresentatives from Ukraine and Russia are due to meet in Abu Dhabi next week to discuss ways to end Russia’s war on Ukraine. Also on the programme: Fiji’s climate negotiator, Sivendra Michael on the ... Available for 29 days…
- US, Russia, and Ukraine to hold talks in Abu DhabiUS, Russian, and Ukrainian officials are expected to meet this week in Abu Dhabi for talks on ending the nearly five-year war, the first direct negotiations in nine months, but experts cautioned that the meetings were unlikely to yield a…
- Trump’s proposed Russia deal raises NATO alarm as ex-commander warns Putin seeks influence over EuropePresident Donald Trump weighs in on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and discusses efforts to bring an end to the conflict. Trump also addresses Russia's decision to stay out of the U.S.-Iran conflict, highlighting the latest developments in…
- More than 400,000 Russians killed fighting in Ukraine war, leaked data suggestsHacked death records reveal scale of losses since Moscow launched full-scale invasion nearly five years ago Ukraine war briefing: post war ‘security guarantees’ a key focus in upcoming Abu Dhabi talks, says Rubio More than 400,000 Russians…
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- Russia<1%
- Italy / Vatican<1%
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions