Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
1%chance
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Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
The odds
26%CXMT
- CXMT26%
- Hesai19%▼ 1
- Unitree18%
- CATL16%▼ 1
- Tencent14%
- DJI13%
- YMTC13%
- Alibaba13%
- Baidu12%
- BYD7%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
CXMT: 26% on Nov 13, 26% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CXMT | 26% | 24¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | $142K | |
| Hesai | 19% | ▼ 1 | 18¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | $75.8K |
| Unitree | 18% | 16¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | $20.4K | |
| CATL | 16% | ▼ 1 | 15¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | $126K |
| Tencent | 14% | 13¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | $48.2K | |
| DJI | 13% | 12¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | $34.9K | |
| YMTC | 13% | 12¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | $39K | |
| Alibaba | 13% | 12¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | $103K | |
| Baidu | 12% | 11¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | $99K | |
| BYD | 7% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | $99.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Chinese Military Companies
Search ›- WuXi Apptec removed from Pentagon list of Chinese military companiesSalem Radio Network News Thursday, November 12, 2026 Latest News » Listen Now Science WuXi Apptec removed from Pentagon list of Chinese military companies Mon, Nov 9, 2026 0 Comments Audio By Carbonatix Enlarge WASHINGTON, Nov 9 (Reuters)…
- Trump administration removes WuXi AppTec from its Chinese military listEd Silverman, a senior writer and Pharmalot columnist at STAT, has been covering the pharmaceutical industry for more than three decades. His stories explore prescription drug pricing, affordability and access, as well issues surrounding…
- U.S. DoD Removes WuXi AppTec From Military List, Clouding Outlook for K-BioScreenshot of the Biotechnology Innovation Organization (BIO) website. [Source: BIO] The U.S. Department of Defense has removed WuXi AppTec, a major China-based contract research, development and manufacturing (CRDMO) company, from its…
- Pentagon Removes Drug Contractor WuXi AppTec From Chinese Military List After Court Ruling, Leaving Relisting PossibleInnovation Pentagon Removes Drug Contractor WuXi AppTec From Chinese Military List After Court Ruling, Leaving Relisting Possible Published Nov 11, 2026 11:00 PM EST By Elena Vega VINCENZO PINTO | AFP via Getty Images The Pentagon has…
- Microsoft urges Trump administration to curb Chinese data center imports amid security concerns: ReportMicrosoft has raised concerns over the surveillance and data-theft risks posed by Chinese optical transceivers, even as industry groups warn that import restrictions could slow US data center expansion and weaken its AI ambitions…
- Tech lifts China, HK shares amid risk-on moodChina and Hong Kong stocks rose, led by AI supply chain shares, buoyed by a Wall Street rally and sliding oil prices, despite mixed trading debuts for some Chinese chip firms. SHANGHAI: China and Hong Kong stocks rose on Tuesday, led by AI…
- Baicells, Quectel pledge to fight US government's new warningThe US Department of Defense (DoD) warned that two Chinese wireless vendors – Baicells and Quectel – are 'Chinese military companies' and therefore represent security threats. Baicells and Quectel are two China-based wireless equipment…
- What is WuXi AppTec? Why Chinese biotech giant was removed from Pentagon's military listChinese biotechnology company WuXi AppTec has been removed from the Pentagon's list of Chinese military companies, offering relief to a business that has faced growing scrutiny in Washington over its links to China's pharmaceutical and…
- Novogene Filed Lawsuit Against US Defence Department Over 'Chinese Military Company' DesignationTradingView Novogene Filed Lawsuit Against US Defence Department Over 'Chinese Military Company' Designation
- Chinese Green Energy Stocks Soar After Democrats Win CongressBy Simon August, DCNF Reporter, Daily Caller News Foundation Chinese solar and battery makers’ shares jumped Thursday on investor bets that Democrats’ new hold on Congress could mean more federal help for green energy. Democrats won both…
- Hong Kong Watch launches report on patriotic education in BrusselsHong Kong Watch Hong Kong Watch launches report on patriotic education in Brussels This week, Hong Kong Watch’s Head of Advocacy and Research Thomas Benson visited Brussels to brief the EU Commission, permanent representations, and Members…
- Novogene Takes Pentagon to Court Over Alleged Ties to China’s MilitaryChinese genetic sequencing company Novogene has sued the US Defense Department over its designation as a company supporting China’s military, arguing that the decision is unlawful and has harmed its business and reputation, Reuters…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions