Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
June 30
<1%
0¢
$3.2M
July 31
<1%
0¢
$1.4M
August 13
<1%
0¢
$1.1M
August 18
<1%
0¢
$2.7M
August 31
<1%
0¢
$4.6M
September 30
<1%
0¢
$2.4M
October 31
<1%
▼ 1
0¢
$1.5M
November 30
3%
▲ 1
3¢
4¢
$26.32
$625K
December 31
13%
▲ 3
12¢
13¢
$7.69
$4.3M
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
US military announces NEW land blockade in IranFox News · 35 h agoFox News chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst reports on U.S. strikes against Iran's Qeshm Island, a confrontation with a commercial vessel in the Gulf of Oman and CENTCOM's new Task Force Iron Gate land blockade. US military announces…
Explosions target southern Iran as CENTCOM announces new land blockadeFox News · 35 h agoFox News chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst reports on the latest military action between the U.S. and Iran. The 'Fox News Sunday' provides analysis on the conflict and President Donald Trump's post-midterm strategy. Explosions target…
Iran executes three men for 'armed unrest' after January protestsBBC News · 38 h agoIran has executed three men accused of carrying out armed unrest during January's anti-government protests, according to state media. Hassan Dioband, Hamid Kazemi and Reza Zanganeh were accused of throwing Molotov cocktails and grenades…
Iran executes three men arrested during January anti-government protestsCNBC · 44 h agoIran executed three men on Sunday after they were convicted of carrying out operations for Israel and the US and taking part in armed unrest during anti-government protests in January, state media reported. The executions are the latest in…
U.S. offers $20 million reward for information on Iran nuclear programThe Washington Post · 35 h agoThe United States announced that it is offering a reward of up to $20 million for information about Iran’s nuclear program. The State Department, through its Rewards for Justice program, is also offering “possible relocation” for…
US reportedly carries out limited strikes on IranFox News · 2 days agoThe U.S. military on Friday reportedly carried out new limited strikes on Iran, targeting an air defense system. US reportedly carries out limited strikes on Iran The U.S. military on Friday reportedly carried out new limited strikes on…
Trump says renewed attacks on Iran ‘highly unlikely’ if talks show progressCNN · 34 h agoPresident Donald Trump said on Sunday that it is “highly unlikely” he will need to order the US back to war with Iran as long as there is progress in negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, repeating…
US Escalates Iran War After JD Vance Blames It for GOP LossesNewsweek · 2 days agoNov 07, 2026 at 11:54 AM EST Nov 07, 2026 at 11:56 AM EST The U.S. is expanding its pressure campaign against Iran just days after Vice President JD Vance said the conflict cost Republicans control of Congress. U.S. Central Command…
US offers $20m reward for information about Iran's nuclear programmeBBC News · 2 days agoThe US has announced a reward of up to $20 million for information about Iran's nuclear programme. The State Department's Rewards for Justice is also offering to potentially relocate the person who provides such details. President Donald…
Trump claims his administration is making progress to end Iran warCBS News · 2 days agoCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Trump…
Trump says return to war with Iran ‘highly unlikely’ as sides continue negotiationsNew York Post · 33 h agoWASHINGTON — President Trump revealed Sunday it is “highly unlikely” that the US will resume the war in Iran as long as talks over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program continue to make progress. “It depends on whether or not they sign a…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions