U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?
99%October 31
- October 3199%▲ 84
- December 3199%▲ 23
Install
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
The odds
12%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 13% on Oct 20, 12% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 9¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | $161K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Poilievre, Conservatives
Search ›- Columbia University pushed this ex-liberal toward conservative stardomIvy league alumni Liza Libes exposes the curriculum and on campus environment that left her feeling "socially ostracized" for the conservative values she developed while at Columbia University. Ivy league alumni Liza Libes exposes the…
- Will AI grant reviews make science more conservative?Elliot Yates is an intern on the Nature Careers and Supplements team. Using artificial intelligence to help make decisions on grant applications could make the process more efficient — but might also mean that new research misses out on…
- Conservative Jewish influencer details University of Michigan campus attackConservative Jewish influencer Lizzy Benichou joins 'Fox & Friends' to share her experience after being cursed at and shoved on the University of Michigan campus. She details the confrontation and the rise of antisemitism on college…
- What conservatives should learn from the Lindsay Clancy caseWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
- Exclusive / Fox-Roku deal poised to clear Justice Department scrutiny under consent decree, despite conservative pressureFox’s $22 billion acquisition of Roku is poised to clear Justice Department scrutiny and move forward under a consent decree, according to people familiar with the deliberations, despite efforts from a right-wing ally of President Donald…
- Conservative Jewish activist vows not to be silenced after being attacked on University of Michigan campusConservative Jewish influencer Lizzy Benichou joins 'Fox & Friends' to share her experience after being cursed at and shoved on the University of Michigan campus. She details the confrontation and the rise of antisemitism on college…
- Apple News maintains left-leaning tilt under new CEO John Ternus, conservative watchdog group saysThe Media Research Center has conducted multiple studies to determine if Apple News offered balanced content ahead of critical midterm elections. Apple News continues to push content from left-leaning news organizations and frame…
- Conservatives like me embrace conservation. Why the Coalition’s chainsaw approach to climate?The Coalition is repudiating its longstanding policy positions on climate, even to the extent of disowning many of the structures it created when in government. Such thinking is not from the conservative tradition and has more in common…
- Crazed University of Michigan student pushes conservative influencer to the ground in unhinged attack: ‘I should’ve f–king killed you’A lunatic University of Michigan student went berserk and attacked a conservative influencer, shoving her to the ground before being arrested — then declared she should have “killed” her as police hauled her away. The unidentified, irate…
- Can Conservatives Go Green?Shannon Osaka, The Washington Post Katrina Trinko, Daily Signal Madison Colombo, Fox News Lyman Stone, Peter Foreshaw Brookes, The Critic Does Having Children Make People Happier in the Long Run? Can Marriage Bridge the Sex Divide? What…
- Conservative group tags Romney as anti-Trump, pro-impeachment in adThe Club for Growth, which opposed Trump in the 2016 primary, is spending $40,000 to show the ad in Utah. 10/16/2019 3:53 PM EDT The Club for Growth, a conservative advocacy group, is going up with TV ads attacking Sen. Mitt Romney — a…
- Poilievre lays out demands ahead of Liberal budgetCanada Post is resuming shipping services to all European countries after suspending the service to some regions because of new duty fees. A canine costume festival took over London’s Hyde Park with the annual Halloween Sausage Walk…
Related markets
All the americas ›Venezuela leader end of 2026?
94%Nicolás Maduro
- Nicolás Maduro94%
- Delcy Rodríguez6%
- No Head of State<1%
13 more
- Edmundo González<1%
- María Corina Machado<1%
- Marco Rubio<1%
- Pete Hegseth<1%
- Diosdado Cabello Rondón<1%
- Dinorah Figuera<1%
- Donald Trump<1%
- Vladimir Padrino López<1%
- Jorge Rodríguez<1%
- Evan Pettus<1%
- Frank Donovan<1%
- Dan Caine<1%
- Richard Grenell<1%
US strike on Colombia by...?
17%December 31
- December 3117%▲ 2
US military action against Cuba by...?
8%December 31
- December 318%▼ 4
Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?
9%December 31
- December 319%
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
2%chance
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions