Another NATO article 4 by...?

Polymarket World › Russia & Ukraine Closes Dec 31 · $1.8K today · $197K traded · $9.4K at stake · prices read 19 min ago

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The odds

9%December 31

October 311%▼ 1
December 319%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

October 31: 1% on Oct 20, 1% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
August 31	<1%			0¢		$146K
October 31	1%	▼ 1		1¢	$90.91	$29.1K
December 31	9%	▼ 1	8¢	10¢	$10.00	$22.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: NATO

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Russian Drones Sank Civilian Ship on NATO’s Black Sea Doorstep, Official SaysNewsweek · 5 days agoNov 04, 2026 at 11:57 AM EST NATO intelligence has confirmed Russian sea drones struck and sank a civilian container vessel just outside alliance member Bulgaria's territorial waters last week, a NATO official told Newsweek. The news came…
EU to lead talks on support for Ukraine with US, Nato, partners – Europe livethe Guardian · 6 days agoEuropean Commission will hold talks with the US, France, Germany, Britain, Nato, and the World Bank Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, who also clashed with Trump in recent months, wasn’t in the mood to offer any reaction to the US elections this…
Like it or not, the White House needs NATO to keep fighting in IranNPR · 7 days agoPresident Trump has had harsh words for NATO since the beginning of the war with Iran. Eight months later, the situation may be settling down, as NATO allies look for ways to take on a greater role. Since the beginning of the war with…
NATO Air-to-Air Refuellingeuro-sd.com · 5 days agoAir-to-air refuelling (AAR) is a major force multiplier, enabling range, payload and combat radius extension of receiving aircraft. The air forces of Hungary and Czech Republic both field a small fleet of GRIPENs and their pilots suffer…
UKRAINE-CRISIS/NATO-BLACKSEABuffalo News · 5 days agoBuffalo News Javascript is required to use this website. President Trump is seen July 8 during a NATO leaders' summit in Ankara, Turkey. After Tuesday's drubbing of Republicans in Tuesday's midterm elections, foreign officials cautioned…
Germany Prepares To Address NATO CCA RequirementAviation Week Network · 4 days agoGermany has committed to providing collaborative combat aircraft air-to-ground capabilities to NATO, according to the German Defense Ministry. Germany Prepares To Address NATO CCA Requirement German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (right)…
NATO Accelerates Procurement For Counter-Drone TechnologiesEurasia Review · 4 days agoOn Thursday (5 November 2026), NATO launched the Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems (C-UAS) marketplace to accelerate the acquisition of counter-drone technologies. It’s part of Drone Edge, an initiative launched at the NATO Summit Defence…
How NATO can turn data into defense advantagePOLITICO · 5 days agoIn a world where conflict outcomes are increasingly defined by information advantage, military leaders must treat data as a primary combat asset. Data is redefining modern defense operations. The ability to master and manage it is now a…
NATO Warns Poland Of Russian 'Provocation"@menafn · 5 days agoNATO Warns Poland Of Russian 'Provocation' Menafn NATO Warns Poland Of Russian 'Provocation' Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Tuesday that Poland was warned by NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe Alexus Grynkewich about a…
British aircraft carrier leads NATO warships in High NorthUK Defence Journal · 5 days agoLouise Sandher-Jones, Minister for the Armed Forces, said at the time: “The deployment of the HMS Prince of Wales and her air wing to the High North and the North Atlantic, operating under NATO leadership, is a clear demonstration of the…
Moscow Expresses Warnings on Kaliningrad Defense Against NATOThe Jamestown Foundation · 5 days agoSubstack Moscow Expresses Warnings on Kaliningrad Defense Against NATO Russia’s senior political and diplomatic leadership has given explicit warnings about Moscow’s readiness to defend Kaliningrad by “all available means,” implicitly…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$197K

Today$1.8K

This week$1.8K

At stake$9.4K

In the news27 headlines today, 351 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Article 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked. For example, Poland's request for consultations on September 10, 2025, or Estonia's request on September 24, 2025 would each qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If a

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions