Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
83%chance▲ 1
Install
US Temperature (Dec 2026)
The odds
56.2median
51.658
Median 56.2Middle half 55.7 – 56.5
How the odds have moved
Median: 56.1 on Oct 20, 56.2 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on ForecastEx.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 52.1 | 82% | $1.22 | ||||
| Above 52.6 | 82% | $1.22 | ||||
| Above 53.1 | 82% | $1.22 | 30.00 | |||
| Above 53.6 | 82% | $1.22 | 100 | |||
| Above 53.8 | 82% | $1.22 | 120 | |||
| Above 54 | 82% | $1.22 | 190 | |||
| Above 54.1 | 82% | $1.22 | 200 | |||
| Above 54.21 | 82% | $1.22 | 310 | |||
| Above 54.4 | 82% | $1.22 | 350 | |||
| Above 54.6 | 82% | $1.22 | 460 | |||
| Above 54.8 | 82% | $1.22 | 490 | |||
| Above 55.5 | 82% | $1.22 | 700 | |||
| Above 56 | 68% | $1.47 | 640 | |||
| Above 56.5 | 26% | $3.85 | 230 | |||
| Above 57 | 6% | $16.67 | ||||
| Above 57.5 | <1% |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Temperature
Search ›- Sunshine and cooler temperatures ahead for Atlanta this weekendCBS News Sunshine and cooler temperatures ahead for Atlanta this weekend Georgia woman celebrates 100 years and shares her advice Hall County voters react as Georgia House race remains too close to call Rivals clash in Georgia varsity…
- Temperatures drop into 60s across North Texas over the weekendCBS News Temperatures drop into 60s across North Texas over the weekend Parents share concerns as Dallas ISD plans vote on closing 6 schools amid enrollment, budget issues Traffic snarled on I-30 just outside Mesquite after multi-vehicle…
- South Florida to see plenty of sunshine, warm temperatures this weekendIt's shaping up to be a spectacular weekend across South Florida with plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures. So, when to the rain chances return? CBS News Miami NEXT Weather meteorologist Scott Withers breaks down the forecast. South…
- A rainy Friday gives way to unusually warm November temperatures for the weekendCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. A rainy…
- Rain is forecasted to dissipate in South Florida, but cooler temperatures could be aheadCBS News Miami is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WFOR-TV and channel 4, CBS News Miami offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Rain is forecasted to…
- Temperatures cool off in Pittsburgh with some morning rain expected on ThursdayNovember 5, 2026 / 6:58 AM EST / CBS Pittsburgh If you know me, you know I have the motto: if we are going to be close to setting a record, let's do it. As long as the record will have no real impact on life and property, I am all about…
- Temperatures to top out in the 60s this weekend as rain chances tick up slightlyNovember 6, 2026 / 6:11 AM CST / CBS Texas TGIF, North Texas. Temperatures are mainly in the 50s on Friday morning. Throughout the day, expect wind gusts up to 20 mph, with temperatures remaining mainly in the 60s. Looking ahead to the…
- Rain chances continue to lower into the weekend in South Florida, with cool temperatures expectedCBS News Miami is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WFOR-TV and channel 4, CBS News Miami offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Rain chances continue to…
- Tropical fish in Massachusetts waters? Warming ocean temperatures are changing the catchNovember 4, 2026 / 8:38 PM EST / CBS Boston When you think of tropical fish, Massachusetts probably isn't the first place that comes to mind. But fishermen are finding some unexpected species in New England waters, and warming ocean…
- Characterization of sorghum lines for low-temperature tolerance and reproductive performance in the post-rainy seasonThe mean performance of the traits studied in both control environment experiments and in filed experiments were mentioned in in Tables 3 & 4 respectively. Response of Sorghum genotypes to days to 50% flowering under 3 different…
- North Texas to stay noticeably cooler this week with temperatures in 70sNovember 4, 2026 / 7:31 AM CST / CBS Texas Wednesday morning's temperatures are noticeably cooler, in the 40s for the Red River counties and the 50s across the metroplex. You'll want to grab a light jacket or sweatshirt when you step…
- Chill to grip Bonfire Night as temperatures dip into single digitsFireworks light up the sky in Inverness on 5 November Dry but chilly weather is forecast this week as millions plan to celebrate Guy Fawkes night on Thursday and the Hindu festival of Diwali on 8 November. Following the stormy end to…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions