Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
82%chance
Install
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?
The odds
1%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 4% on Oct 20, 1% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $66.67 | $31.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: outbreak, pandemic, New Coronavirus Pandemic
Search ›- The next global pandemic could be brewing on a mink farm in Utah – and little is being done to stop itMink farms are the perfect petri dishes for deadly flu strains to emerge. Yet officials appear to be protecting business interests over human lives Could this be ground zero? Could it be the spot where the next pandemic begins? It’s…
- Utah Mink Farm's Outbreak Is a Pandemic's 'Perfect Petri Dish"Public health experts say a nightmare scenario is playing out in Utah, and state and federal officials are mostly looking the other way. In a lengthy investigation, Nat Lash and... Utah Mink Farm's Outbreak Is a Pandemic's 'Perfect Petri…
- Biosecurity-by-Design for CEPI’s Pandemic Preparedness EngineCEPI is building in a multilayered approach to securing the Pandemic Preparedness Engine. Find out more. When fully operational, CEPI’s Pandemic Preparedness Engine for Disease X (PPX) will be a critical tool to achieve the 100 Days…
- Taco Bell sales improve after cyclospora outbreakKXLY.com Local news coverage from KXLY+ 4 News Now Nightside - November 4 2026 Billy Joel's motorcycle set for auction Spokane Chiefs beat Kelowna Rockets 3-2 Conroy beating Baumgartner in Spokane Co, but incumbent holds overall lead…
- After the flood, Nepal braces for disease outbreaksA catastrophic flood in Nepal has killed thousands already. Now, a grave public health crisis threatens. The morning of August 26 was fine and clear until suddenly it wasn’t, recalls Bishal Khadka, a bank branch manager in Timmure, Rasuwa…
- Forceful fungi could help tackle Devon bluetongue outbreaksA funding bid is being put together to secure cash to develop a fungus that could help battle a future bluetongue outbreak as the virus blights the county. Devon has been the national epicentre of bluetongue, with more than four in every…
- Zimbabwe launches $14.33m pandemic preparedness projectThe three-year Pandemic Fund project will run from 2026 to 2028, supported by $49 million in partner co-financing and $91.8 million in government co-investment. The African Development Bank Group (AfDB), Food and Agriculture Organisation…
- Bill Gates warns AI could trigger a pandemic worse than Covid, accuses Trump administration of blocking safeguardsBill Gates has warned that artificial intelligence could make biological threats and cyberattacks far more dangerous, potentially resulting in a pandemic deadlier than Covid. Speaking at the FT’s Future of AI Summit, the Microsoft…
- Horse owners urged to stay vigilant after outbreakRemoving standing water can help reduce midge populations on a property. Horse owners in the Western Cape have been urged to monitor their animals and follow movement restrictions after African horse sickness (AHS) was confirmed near…
- Oyo Records 9 Fire Outbreaks In 8 MonthsNo fewer than nine fire outbreaks have been recorded in markets and commercial centres across Oyo State between February and October 2026, destroying shops and goods and leaving several traders with financial losses. Among the affected…
- Anthrax Outbreak Kills Dozens of Hippos in DR CongoDeadly bacterial disease confirmed in Virunga National Park as authorities warn of potential risks to nearby communities and wildlife. Published 5 November 2026, 9:54 An outbreak of anthrax has killed dozens of hippopotamuses in the…
- Bird flu outbreak strikes Lincolnshire duck farm, triggering poultry cullA fresh outbreak of highly pathogenic bird flu has been confirmed at a commercial duck farm in Lincolnshire, triggering new restrictions on poultry movements and farming activities across a 10km area. The H5N1 strain of avian influenza was…
Related markets
All climate ›New pandemic in 2026?
2%chance
Arctic sea ice max in winter 2026–2027
14.6high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 14.6.
- Reaches 13.897%
- Reaches 13.996%
US Temperature (Dec 2026)
56.2median
51.658
Median 56.2Middle half 55.7 – 56.5
Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
83%chance▲ 2
India meets its 2030 climate goals?
66%chance▲ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions