Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
83%chance▲ 1
Install
New pandemic in 2026?
The odds
2%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 3% on Oct 20, 2% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $41.67 | $1.3M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: outbreak, pandemic
Search ›- Uganda calls for AU force to contain Ebola outbreakIts health minister says AU personnel could provide medical and logistical support, and help ease a shortage of health workers Uganda has called on the African Union to consider deploying its standby peacekeeping and humanitarian force to…
- How Ben Zauzmer, Leading Oscars Forecaster, Makes Predictions in a Pandemic‘Oscarmetrics’ author Ben Zauzmer has a solid record of predicting winners. How will his model account for, well, everything? Fasten your seatbelts. It’s going to be a bumpy night. As an Oscars diehard, Ben Zauzmer surely recognizes that…
- Florida could see a sea turtle baby boom—thanks to pandemicA green sea turtle in Florida covers her newly laid eggs with sand. Some researchers have found increases in successful nesting rates this year. Tourism is down, but nesting success may be up. Here’s what scientists are saying and how…
- Algorithm to predict PEDV outbreaksResearchers from North Carolina State University have developed an algorithm that could give pig farms advance notice of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) outbreaks. The proof-of-concept algorithm has potential for use in real-time…
- How the pandemic changed trust in science — in four chartsMiryam Naddaf is a reporter for Nature in London. “We should be paying attention to, and thinking about, what needs to be done to earn that trust,” says Philippa Michael, head of public initiatives at Wellcome, who led the project. This is…
- Ebola Death Toll Surpasses 5,000 in DRC as Outbreak IntensifiesAt SSBCrack News, our dedicated editorial team brings you the latest and most reliable updates on Defence, Geopolitics, Military Affairs, Science, and Technology. Driven by a passion for national security and strategic awareness, the…
- UN Condemns Killing of Nurse in DR Congo Ebola OutbreakThe UN's Ebola coordinator and the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) have deplored the killing of a nurse working to halt the spread of the disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The nurse was killed by protesters…
- Texas restricts animal movement across 14 counties to fight parasitic screwworm outbreakBRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Texas agricultural authorities have placed strict animal movement restrictions on portions of 14 counties as state and federal agencies work to contain a growing outbreak of the parasitic New World screwworm. Before…
- Michigan EHD outbreak pushes DNR to add hunter toolLansing, Mich. — Epizootic hemorrhagic disease continues to affect deer across Michigan, with cases in 15 counties prompting the DNR to launch an online map tracking the outbreak. The new map identifies locations where suspected EHD cases…
- Floods Drive Leptospirosis Outbreaks in Southeast Asia, Review FindsA systematic review of eight studies published between 2020 and 2025 finds that leptospirosis outbreaks across Southeast Asia consistently follow floods, typhoons, and monsoons with a one-to-three-month lag, driven by stagnant contaminated…
- Be Aware of The Current UFOs Pandemic. Remember, We Are Alone.This post was originally published on the main website on May 12 2026. I am reposting it here for SEO reasons and enabling humble bumble discussions with the DEV community. Feel free to engage with this post and i am available to respond…
- Saudi Arabia halts citizens’ travel to and from Kenya amid Ebola outbreakFri, Oct 30, 2026 | Jumada al-Awwal 18, 1448 | Fajr 05:07|DXB 30.7°C Saudi Arabia has introduced additional precautionary measures against the Ebola virus, including suspending travel to and from Kenya following an assessment of the…
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Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions