Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
83%chance▲ 1
Install
Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
The odds
68%chance▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 67% on Oct 20, 68% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 68% | ▲ 1 | 66¢ | 70¢ | $1.43 | 21.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Celsius
Search ›- Engineered groundwater circulation cools geothermal borehole arrays by up to 8.7 degrees CelsiusA MODFLOW 6 modeling study finds that engineered well doublets can lower ten-year temperatures around nine-borehole geothermal arrays by up to 8.7 degrees Celsius, even in heterogeneous aquifers.
- 2026 virtually certain to exceed 1.5-degree Celsius warming threshold: EU climate monitorChina Daily Global Edition 2026 virtually certain to exceed 1.5-degree Celsius warming threshold: EU climate monitor
- Northern Vietnam braces for cold snap, lows of 9 degrees CelsiusAccording to the National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, a weaker cold front is expected to affect northern Vietnam from the night of November 5 to November 6, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. A stronger cold…
- “Double it and add 30” is close enough to fool you — until you need the real Celsius to Fahrenheit numberThere's a trick everyone half-remembers for Celsius to Fahrenheit: double it and add 30. This is the second post in a short series about conversion factors people half-remember. The first one covered why 1 mile is not 1.6 km — same…
- Weather forecast for November 5, 2026: Northern Vietnam to prepare for a stronger cold front, with temperatures potentially dropping below 13 degrees Celsius in some areas.Latest weather forecast news for today (November 5, 2026). Get the fastest and most accurate weather forecast updates on Nguoi Dua Tin. The National Center for Meteorological and Hydrological Forecasting predicts that this area will be…
- Hackers target blood plasma freezers, change temperature settings from -30 degree to 110 degree celsiusCoolworld provides refrigeration equipment and maintenance services, including cooling units used in medical facilities. According to reports, an on-call technician noticed the unusual temperature readings during the night. This allowed…
- ICA Group Yet to Confirm Cyberattack After Stores Report Freezers Heated to 50 Degrees CelsiusSeveral stores of ICA, one of Sweden’s largest grocery chains, threw out refrigerated and frozen stock on Monday after operators said hackers disrupted their cooling systems overnight. ICA Kvantum Sjöbo described what happened in a…
- Madhya Pradesh Weather Update: Murasu Storm To Bring Rain Until November 5, Temperatures Drop By 8 Degrees CelsiusMurasu Storm In Madhya Pradesh: The impact of the cyclone 'Arnab' has brought cooler weather in Madhya Pradesh. Daytime temperatures have dropped by 7 to 8 degrees within four days. Night temperatures have also experienced a drop…
- New Damage Model Predicts How Concrete Weakens in Fires from 20 to 600 Degrees CelsiusThe structural-scale results follow the same pattern. The predicted peak capacity of reinforced concrete beams drops from 470 kilonewtons at ambient temperature to 360 kilonewtons at 400 °C and 175 kilonewtons at 600 °C, values the authors…
- Rapid Thermal Annealing at 600 Degrees Celsius Unlocks the Best Ferroelectric Performance in Ultrathin Hafnium Zirconium Oxide FilmsA systematic study of 10-nanometer Hf0.5Zr0.5O2 films finds that rapid thermal annealing near 600 degrees Celsius maximizes the ferroelectric orthorhombic phase and delivers the strongest local polarization switching, while higher…
- Delhi Records Season's Lowest Minimum Temperature At 16 Degrees CelsiusDelhi on Monday recorded a minimum temperature of 16.2 degrees Celsius, the lowest so far this month, and a 'moderate' air quality. The city recorded a maximum temperature of 31.4 degrees Celsius, 0.4 degrees below normal. The Air Quality…
- Delhi records lowest min temp of month at 16 deg Celsius; air 'moderate'New Delhi, Oct 26 (PTI) Delhi on Monday recorded a minimum temperature of 16.2 degrees Celsius, the lowest so far this month, and a ‘moderate’ air quality. The city recorded a maximum temperature of 31.4 degrees Celsius, 0.4 degrees below…
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Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
83%chance▲ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions