Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Nov 4, 11 PM ETRepublican: 88% → 72%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Republican
67%
63¢
71¢
$1.41
7.4K
Democratic
33%
30¢
35¢
$2.86
693
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Stephen Miller is a 'great choice' for White House chief of staff: Louisiana governorFox News · 3 days agoLouisiana Gov. Jeff Landry discusses Susie Wiles stepping down as White House chief of staff and being replaced by White House deputy chief of staff for policy Stephen Miller on 'America Reports.' ... Stephen Miller is a 'great choice' for…
Louisiana Republicans confront voter frustration after midterm lossesJust The News · 25 h ago(The Center Square) — Louisiana Republicans are questioning President Donald Trump’s handling of the conflict with Iran, immigration enforcement and the rising cost of living after a Democratic midterm wave nearly cost the GOP a U.S…
Melania Trump Appears to be Loudly Booed at Louisiana Football GameDrudge Retort · 3 h agoThe first lady's stadium appearance sparks controversy after videos capture an unexpected reaction. Posted by C0RI0LANUS at 05:31 PM | 3 COMMENTS | permalink | Comment on This Entry | America's "Worst Couple": Melanoma and Dirtbag Trumpf…
What happened to recall petition against Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry?Sacramento Bee · 27 h agoA petition to recall Louisiana Republican Gov. Jeff Landry has flopped after the organizers failed to secured the required number of signatures to trigger an election. The deadline to turn in the required number of signatures - about…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions