US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?
33%December 31
- October 31<1%
- November 3025%▼ 11
- December 3133%▼ 7
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When will the US cut the 50% aluminum tariff on Canada?
The odds
Jun 27, 2027even chance by
- Before Jan 1, 202723%
- Before Apr 1, 202740%▲ 27
- Before Jul 1, 202751%
How the odds have moved
Before Apr 1, 2027: 13% on Oct 26, 40% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 23% | 18¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | ||
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 40% | ▲ 27 | 36¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 2.00 |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 51% | 46¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: tariffs, tariff, Canada
Search ›- US midterm results a 'victory' for Canadians hopeful of tariff reliefUS tariffs on Canada featured heavily in Michigan and Maine, where Democratic candidates won big on Tuesday It was the midterm result that many in Canada had hoped for - a Democratic sweep that was in part a repudiation by American voters…
- Midterm election fallout raises new questions over Fed, debt and tariffsCNBC Midterm election fallout raises new questions over Fed, debt and tariffs
- Trump tariffs in red states could cause a GOP loss, expert warnsFox News Trump tariffs in red states could cause a GOP loss, expert warns Former Obama economic advisor Robert Wolf argues that tariffs under President Donald Trump damaged key farming sectors in Iowa and Ohio with high prices.
- U.S. exempts Canadian blueberry packaging from tariffsWild blueberry growers in Maine are among the agricultural businesses benefiting from U.S. tariff exemptions on nine categories of Canadian imports, including packaging materials and machinery. Republican Senator Susan Collins announced…
- Higher energy, gold exports offset US tariff impact on CanadaEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered…
- China extends tariff relief for Canadian canola, lobster and crabThe federal government announced on Wednesday that China will extend its soon-to-expire tariff-free treatment for some Canadian agricultural and seafood products for another two years. After Prime Minister Mark Carney's January trip to…
- Canada invests $3.5M to help MQM Manufacturing counter tariffsWollongong-based online news outlet covering Australia and beyond. If you have anything newsworthy - a story, video or picture to share with us, please email us. Atlantic Canada has the ingredients to become an economic powerhouse and a…
- Medtech Canada Urges Zero-for-Zero Tariffs on Medical TechnologiesNew U.S. tariffs risk increasing health care costs and disrupting integrated medical technology supply chains MISSISSAUGA, ON, Nov. 3, 2026 /CNW/ -- Medtech Canada is very concerned that medical technologies, diagnostics and laboratory…
- Canada Countermeasures to U.S. TariffsCompanies should also monitor Canada’s tariff list closely because the situation remains fluid and additional countermeasures are possible. Notably, Canada’s new counter-tariffs will not apply to U.S. goods already in transit to Canada on…
- Trump’s midterm drubbing gives Canadian auto industry new hope on tariffsThe wave of Democratic midterm wins could put Canada in a better position to end the 18-month trade war with the United States. But Canadian auto leaders are not expecting a resolution overnight. Trumpâs midterm drubbing gives Canadian…
- Canada’s trade surplus with U.S. widens to $12.3 billion despite new tariffsOverall, nation reported the largest trade surplus in four years Canada’s month-over-month trade surplus with the United States widened to $12.3 billion in September from $12.1 billion, with exports slightly increasing after the…
- EU and Canada seek closer ties amid US tariffsDW.com EU and Canada seek closer ties amid US tariffs Europe and Canada are moving closer together economically, technologically and potentially in defence, building on the CETA free trade agreement that has been in force since 2017. Trade…
Related markets
All trade & tariffs ›US tariff revenue for 2026
56%Above $300 billion
$60$350
50% tariffs on Canadian autos and steel in effect? (Before Jan 2, 2027)
24%chance
Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
18%chance
US trade deficit for 2026?
181.2median
35.1200
Median 181.2Middle half 171.8 – 190.6
US trade deficit for 2032
50%Above $1.2 trillion
$400$1,300
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions