US tariff revenue for 2026
56%Above $300 billion
$60$350
Install
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?
The odds
34%December 31
- October 31<1%
- November 3026%▼ 11
- December 3134%▼ 7
How the odds have moved
October 31: 5% on Oct 20, <1% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 31 | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $71.43 | $52.3K | |
| September 30 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $73.8K | ||
| October 31 | <1% | 0¢ | $149K | |||
| November 30 | 26% | ▼ 11 | 12¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | $430 |
| December 31 | 34% | ▼ 7 | 28¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | $45.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: tariffs, tariff, US-Canada
Search ›- Mark Carney says US, Canada teams will work on trade deal in ‘coming weeks’The Canadian prime minister cited recent “constructive discussions” with Trump around a potential deal. Prime Minister Mark Carney's office confirmed that the prime minister spoke to President Donald Trump by phone Saturday. | Evan…
- Midterm election fallout raises new questions over Fed, debt and tariffsCNBC Midterm election fallout raises new questions over Fed, debt and tariffs
- Trump tariffs in red states could cause a GOP loss, expert warnsFox News Trump tariffs in red states could cause a GOP loss, expert warns Former Obama economic advisor Robert Wolf argues that tariffs under President Donald Trump damaged key farming sectors in Iowa and Ohio with high prices.
- Toys ‘R’ Us Canada to open within 300 Staples stores by end of 2027A permanently closed Toys ‘R’ Us store in Toronto, on Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2026. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sammy Kogan The new owner of Toys “R” Us Canada will revive the brand by opening dedicated shopping areas within Staples Canada stores. The…
- Man questions 'pointless hustle' in India after seeing Indians own villas in US, CanadaIn a post on X, Pranava Bhardwaj said he was surprised by how easily some people appeared to afford homes in rural and countryside locations in the US and Canada. He noted that people he had known to be struggling to make ends meet in…
- US, Canadian Importers and Exporters ‘Decidedly Glum’ Over Future Prospects for North American TradeExporters and importers across the United States and Canada are “weary” and “decidedly glum” in the face of continued political pressures that threaten the future of cross-border trade, according to new research. Livingston International’s…
- Keystone XL pipeline gets another lifeline as US, Canada seek ‘new trade deal’Trump said he had another conversation with Carney on Saturday and that the proposed agreement would benefit American farmers and the broader US economy. “I spoke to him again yesterday, and we have the concept of a deal that’s going to be…
- 25 citizens of the US, Canada and the UK have applied for asylum in RussiaNov 3, 2026 04:45, renew at Nov 3, 2026 04:51 102 A total of 25 citizens of the US, Canada and the UK applied for asylum in Russia from January to September 2026. They include 11 Americans, 8 Canadians and 6 Britons, TASS reports, citing…
- US-Canada trade talks, UAW to strike over contract dispute, DCG’s new SVPTrump and Carney signal progress toward potential U.S.-Canada trade deal. Read More UAW Local 405 to strike Triumph Engine Control Systems over contract dispute. Read More GM to pay $220 million over data sold to insurers. Read More CDK…
- Trump floats 'concept' of US-Canada deal that includes pipeline talking to CarneyPresident Donald Trump smiles after speaking at a campaign rally at the Salina Regional Airport, Salina, Kansas, Nov. 1. AP-Yonhap MONTREAL/DUBUQUE — US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that his administration has the "concept" of a…
- Trump says US, Canada have 'concept' of a new trade dealRead more about Trump says US, Canada have 'concept' of a new trade deal on Devdiscourse Trump says US, Canada have 'concept' of a new trade deal US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that his administration has the "concept" of a…
- Trump, Carney discuss possible US-Canada deal to ease trade tensionsA possible trade deal between the US and Canada may be taking shape after President Donald Trump spoke with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. Trump said his administration had a “concept” for an agreement, while Carney described their…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions