US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?
33%December 31
- October 31<1%
- November 3026%▼ 11
- December 3133%▼ 7
Install
US tariff revenue for 2026
The odds
56%Above $300 billion
$60$350
How the odds have moved
Above $80 billion: 95% on Oct 20, 96% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $80 billion | 96% | 92¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 77.00 | |
| Above $100 billion | 96% | 94¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 171 | |
| Above $125 billion | 95% | 92¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 402 | |
| Above $150 billion | 95% | 93¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 3.1K | |
| Above $200 billion | 94% | 92¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 5.2K | |
| Above $250 billion | 89% | ▼ 1 | 85¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 4.3K |
| Above $300 billion | 56% | 51¢ | 61¢ | $1.64 | 233 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: tariffs, tariff
Search ›- Dan Ives says tech rout is 'golden buying opportunity' just like during Covid, tariff sell-offTechnology stocks are sinking after Democrats regained control of Congress earlier this week, creating buying opportunities in the market, per analyst Dan Ives.
- Democrats plan to fight Trump’s Canada tariffs once they’re back in control of Congress: reportDemocrats are planning to fight President Trump’s tariffs once they assume control of Congress in January, hoping to win some Republicans to the cause, according to a report. Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), who’s poised to chair the Senate…
- China calls on US and EU to reconsider tariffsBeijing said it was willing to buy more US farm goods, but only if the two sides agreed to slash tariffs. Beijing called on the US and the EU to reconsider their levies on Chinese goods, as the countryâs exports reached record highs…
- BD CEO explains how the company used tariff refunds to buy back sharesAdjusted earnings jump twenty-seven percent for MedTech giant BD as Chairman and CEO Tom Polen joins Liz Claman on 'The Claman Countdown.' Polen breaks down the company's quarterly sales performance and strong GLP-1 drug delivery business…
- The tariffs regime will likely be repealed, says Jim CramerCNBC The tariffs regime will likely be repealed, says Jim Cramer
- OPINION: Who pays the tariffs?Reciprocal tariffs announced by the Trump administration on April 2, 2025. When I completed my BA in economics back in the 80s, tariffs were, in effect, taxes paid by the consumer on the product the tariff was placed on, and that has not…
- US midterm results a 'victory' for Canadians hopeful of tariff reliefIt was the midterm result that many in Canada had hoped for - a Democratic sweep that was in part a repudiation by American voters of Donald Trump's tariff on close trade allies. "I was doing cartwheels down the street," said Ontario…
- China Section 301 Tariff Exclusions ExtendedDecember 2, 2025 // Trade Report Pursuant to a recent U.S.-China trade and economic agreement, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative has extended through Nov. 9, 2026, the exclusion of 178 products from Section 301 tariffs on China…
- Democrats Plan to End Trump’s Canada Tariffs and Repair Ties, but New 50% Tariffs LoomDemocrats are making Trump’s tariffs on Canada one of their first targets once they take control of Congress in January. But just as they get started, another round is coming. Fifty per cent tariffs on Canadian cars, trucks, auto parts and…
- Sask. trampoline maker still dealing with tariffsThe managing partner of a Regina company that custom-builds trampolines says tariff and trade challenges are just “another day in business.” On Friday, Luke Shaheen gave a tour of Crazy Ape Extreme Equipment to Immigration and Career…
- NEPRA hikes power tariff by Rs2.37 per unitThe National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) on Saturday raised electricity prices by Rs2.37 per unit for consumers across the country, including those of Karachi-Electric (K-Electric), under the fuel adjustment for the month…
- Conifex Receives Regional Tariff Response FundingVANCOUVER, British Columbia, Oct. 28, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Conifex Timber Inc. ('Conifex') (TSX: CFF) announced today that it has secured up... Conifex Receives Regional Tariff Response Funding VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Oct. 28…
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All trade & tariffs ›50% tariffs on Canadian autos and steel in effect? (Before Jan 2, 2027)
24%chance
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18%chance
US trade deficit for 2026?
181.2median
35.1200
Median 181.2Middle half 171.8 – 190.6
US trade deficit for 2032
50%Above $1.2 trillion
$400$1,300
US trade deficit for 2031
$1,177median
$400$1,300
Median $1,177
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions