Argentina presidential election winner? (2027)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Oct 30, 2028 · $3 today · $19K traded · $6.7K at stake · prices read 6 min ago

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The odds

46%Javier Milei
  • Javier Milei46%
  • Axel Kicillof34%
  • Sergio Massa11%
  • Patricia Bullrich3%
  • Mauricio Macri3%
  • Eduardo de Pedro1%
  • Horacio Rodríguez Larreta1%

How the odds have moved

Javier Milei: 54% on Oct 20, 46% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 29, 9 PM ETJavier Milei: 52% → 47%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Javier Milei 46% 45¢ 47¢ $2.13 33.7K
Axel Kicillof 34% 33¢ 34¢ $2.94 6.1K
Sergio Massa 11% 9¢ 12¢ $8.33 13.4K
Patricia Bullrich 3% 0¢ 5¢ $20.00 1.8K
Mauricio Macri 3% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 993
Eduardo de Pedro 1% 0¢ 3¢ $35.71 103
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta 1% 0¢ 3¢ $35.71 104

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Argentina, Javier Milei, Axel Kicillof

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  • “Right-wing politics and anti-politics. From Carlos Menem to Javier Milei”CLACSO · 7 days agoCLACSO - Common knowledge: technologies, artificial intelligence, open science and territorial knowledge - Democracies in dispute: horizons, resistances and the construction of alternatives from the public and the common - Social right to…
  • Argentina’s Kirchner is betting on Trump’s defeat — and her own comebackThe Washington Post · 8 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Cristina Fernández de…
  • SPAIN-ARGENTINA/San Mateo Daily Journal · 7 days agoSan Mateo Daily Journal Argentina's President Javier Milei delivers a speech at the New Economy Forum in Madrid Oct. 21. Argentina's Milei pitches a regulation-free AI haven at the end of the world Data centers are facing a growing…
  • Argentina's Milei pitches a regulation-free AI haven at the end of the worldSan Mateo Daily Journal · 7 days agoArgentina's President Javier Milei delivers a speech at the New Economy Forum in Madrid Oct. 21. As residents and policymakers in the United States and Europe fight the facilities that power artificial intelligence, President Javier Milei…
  • Argentina: Israel an unconquerable lightJFeed · 6 days agoPresident Javier Milei receives award in Buenos Aires, delivers sweeping pro-Israel speech invoking the Maccabees' victory, warning of global antisemitism and pledging to stand with Israel and Netanyahu The event honored Milei with the…
  • Argentina's ex-president Kirchner eyes 2027 run against Mileiintellinews.com · 7 days agoCristina Fernandez de Kirchner, Argentina's convicted ex-president, would consider running against Javier Milei in 2027 if her ban from office is ...
  • Milei: Argentina backs Israel over shared values, not 'personal whim'Israel & Jewish News - JNS · 6 days agoArgentine President Javier Milei said on Monday that his country’s support for Israel is not based on his personal preferences, but on a commitment to defending Western values. “We do not defend Israel because of a personal whim of the…
  • Argentina Won’t Say If It Helped BolsonaroThe Rio Times · 6 days agoArgentina’s government says Flávio Bolsonaro’s passage through the country was formal and the matter is closed. It would not say whether President Javier Milei knew of the trip in advance. Argentina’s presidential spokesperson, Adrián…
  • Radio Primavera Sound - Summering in Argentina with Georgina Orellano: feminism and prostitution | S1E04Primavera Sound · 7 days agoGeorgina Orellano has spent 12 years fighting to ensure that the police and laws in Argentina leave sex workers alone and to secure their rights. Why does white feminism refuse to listen to her? A sex worker, general secretary of AMMAR…
  • Can Milei's Success in Argentina Be Repeated Elsewhere?Reason Magazine · 8 days agoThe December 2026 issue of Reason explores Argentine President Javier Milei's accomplishments and what is yet to be done. A lifelong libertarian might be forgiven for getting a little pessimistic about the possibility of real reform. Milei…
  • Brazil-Argentina trade seen holding up despite Lula-Milei riftvalorinternational · 6 days agoDespite the political and ideological differences between Argentine President Javier Milei and reelected Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, economic relations between Brazil and Argentina are expected to continue as usual…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions