Blue tsunami in 2026?

Kalshi Politics Closes Feb 1, 2027 · $98.5K today · $3.6M traded · $1.6M at stake · prices read 5 min ago

Embed

The odds

99%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 51% on Oct 20, 99% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 29, 11 PM ET56% → 63%
  2. Oct 21, 7 PM ET52% → 59%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Yes 99% 99¢ 99¢ $1.01 3.7M

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Blue

Search ›
  • Historic voter turnout powered Democrats’ blue waveThe Washington Post · 3 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Voter turnout reached…
  • The Blue Takeover of the States May Be the Big StoryFox News · 2 days ago©2026 Fox News Network, LLC. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. All market data delayed 20 minutes. The Blue Takeover of the States May Be the Big Story Years of conservative…
  • How Latino voters powered the blue wave in TexasCBS News · 2 days agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Latino voters boost…
  • Will Pete Hegseth be the blue tsunami’s next victim?the Guardian · 3 days agoThe ‘secretary of war’ and his shameful history are facing bipartisan scrutiny Can you smell the schadenfreude in the air? Watching some of the worst people in the world get their comeuppance this week has been deeply satisfying. And the…
  • The night Texas turned blue / Texas MonthlyCBS News · 3 days agoCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. The night Texas turned…
  • How Gen Z voters helped fuel a blue wave for DemocratsNPR · 41 h agoDemocrats have done well in recent elections when they win young voters by a margin of at least 20 points. On Tuesday, they carried Gen Z — those under 30 — by nearly 50 points, according to exit polling. It's a stunning shift from 2024…
  • Why Latino voters swung blue this yearNPR · 3 days agoNPR Why Latino voters swung blue this year NPR's Mary Louise Kelly talks with Sabrina Rodriguez, politics reporter for the Wall Street Journal, about the role Latino voters played in the midterm election. NPR does not offer or accept money…
  • How Republicans Got Swept Away by the Blue Tsunami in Six ChartsNewsweek · 2 days agoNov 07, 2026 at 05:00 AM EST Nov 07, 2026 at 07:11 AM EST Two years after carrying President Donald Trump and Republicans to power, the GOP coalition appeared to come apart. Men backed Democratic House candidates 50 percent to 48 percent…
  • Will this week's blue wave election usher in a Democratic president in 2028?CNBC · 3 days agoIn surfer slang, a wave that lasts a long time is a "runner." A key question for investors is whether the blue wave that washed over the country Tuesday was that kind of wave, and could it ferry Democrats to victory in 2028. Statistically…
  • Amid blue wave celebrations, D.C. Dems in disarray over council seatThe Washington Post · 3 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Political power…
  • Michigan’s Next Head Coach Needs to be True BlueYahoo Sports · 47 h agoBo Schembechler once noted he didn't realize how much the Michigan – Michigan State game meant until it was over. He was referring to the 23-12 loss in East Lansing to the Spartans in 1969 during his first year as head coach at Michigan…
  • What midterm election 'blue wave' rebuke of Trump means for renewable energyCNBC · 3 days agoAs recently as 2022, many leaders in corporate America and the investment community were singing the praises of ESG — environmental, social, governance — as the foundation of stakeholder capitalism. It didn't take long for that tune to…

Related markets

All politics ›

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

37%Pete Hegseth
  • Pete Hegseth37%▼ 5
  • Will Scharf31%▼ 11
  • Trent McCotter28%▼ 9
37 more
  • Stanley Woodward28%▼ 6
  • Amy Gleason27%▼ 7
  • Christopher Landau26%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick25%▲ 5
  • Kash Patel23%▼ 1
  • Doug Collins21%▲ 1
  • Brad Cooper20%
  • Dan Caine20%▼ 2
  • Steven Cheung19%▼ 17
  • Kevin Hassett19%▲ 4
  • Linda McMahon18%▼ 3
  • Sergio Gor18%▼ 7
  • Peter Navarro17%▼ 1
  • Brooke Rollins17%
  • Marco Rubio14%▼ 2
  • Chris Wright14%
  • Doug Burgum14%
  • John Ratcliffe14%▲ 3
  • Scott Turner13%▲ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.13%▼ 4
  • Steve Witkoff13%▼ 5
  • Mehmet Oz13%▼ 1
  • Bill Pulte13%▼ 1
  • Kelly Loeffler13%▼ 6
  • Joe Gebbia13%▲ 2
  • Jamieson Greer12%▲ 1
  • Mike Huckabee12%▲ 1
  • Tom Homan11%
  • Todd Blanche11%▼ 4
  • Rodney Scott10%
  • Sean Duffy10%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz10%▼ 8
  • Russell Vought8%
  • Lee Zeldin8%▲ 1
  • Scott Bessent8%▼ 1
  • Tilman Fertitta8%▲ 2
  • Brendan Carr5%▼ 2

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

99%Susie Wiles
  • Susie Wiles99%▲ 75
  • None before 2027<1%▼ 17
  • J.D. Vance<1%▼ 1
18 more
  • Marco Rubio<1%▼ 17
  • Scott Bessent<1%▼ 2
  • Pete Hegseth<1%▼ 33
  • Doug Burgum<1%▼ 2
  • Brooke Rollins<1%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick<1%▼ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%▼ 3
  • Scott Turner<1%
  • Sean Duffy<1%
  • Chris Wright<1%▼ 1
  • Linda McMahon<1%
  • Doug Collins<1%
  • Lee Zeldin<1%▼ 1
  • Russell T. Vought<1%
  • John Ratcliffe<1%
  • Jamieson Greer<1%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz<1%▼ 2
  • Kelly Loeffler<1%▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions