Predictions › Politics odds Every Trump administration market on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com: the odds, the money behind them, the biggest moves and the news.
% US Dec
831 open markets · $4.1M traded today Trending trump administration markets
Pete Hegseth 37% ▼ 5 Will Scharf 30% ▼ 13 Trent McCotter 28% ▼ 9 Stanley Woodward 28% ▼ 5 36 more Amy Gleason 27% ▼ 7 Christopher Landau 26% ▼ 2 Howard Lutnick 25% ▲ 7 Kash Patel 23% Doug Collins 21% ▲ 1 Brad Cooper 20% Dan Caine 20% ▼ 2 Kevin Hassett 19% ▲ 4 Linda McMahon 18% ▼ 3 Steven Cheung 18% ▼ 16 Sergio Gor 18% ▼ 7 Peter Navarro 17% ▼ 3 Brooke Rollins 16% ▼ 1 Marco Rubio 16% ▼ 1 Chris Wright 14% ▼ 1 Doug Burgum 14% John Ratcliffe 14% ▲ 3 Scott Turner 13% ▲ 2 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 13% ▼ 3 Steve Witkoff 13% ▼ 5 Mehmet Oz 13% ▼ 1 Bill Pulte 13% ▼ 1 Kelly Loeffler 13% ▼ 6 Joe Gebbia 13% ▲ 1 Jamieson Greer 12% Tom Homan 11% ▲ 1 Mike Huckabee 11% ▼ 2 Todd Blanche 11% ▼ 2 Rodney Scott 10% Sean Duffy 10% ▼ 1 Mike Waltz 9% ▼ 9 Russell Vought 8% Scott Bessent 8% Lee Zeldin 8% ▲ 1 Tilman Fertitta 8% ▲ 2 Brendan Carr 5% ▼ 3
October 31 >99% ▲ 89 December 31 >99% ▲ 67
Anna Kelly 14% ▲ 2 Monica Crowley 5% ▲ 1 Margo Martin 4% Harrison Fields 4% 29 more Taylor Rogers 3% Beni Rae Harmony 3% Maria Bartiromo 3% Natalie Harp 3% Karoline Leavitt 3% Katie Miller 2% Tricia McLaughlin 2% Elizabeth Pipko 2% ▲ 1 Scott Jennings 2% ▼ 5 Rachel Campos-Duffy 2% Liz Huston 2% Kayleigh McEnany 2% Spencer Pratt 2% Hogan Gidley 2% Lauren Bis 2% Alina Habba 2% Laura Loomer 2% Nicki Minaj 2% Lara Trump 1% ▼ 1 Katie Pavlich 1% Dana White 1% ▼ 1 Kari Lake 1% ▼ 1 Kaelan Dorr 1% Jake Paul 1% Pat Adams 1% Matthew Boyle <1% Steven Cheung <1% Ari Fleischer <1% Kush Desai <1%
Susie Wiles 99% ▲ 75 None before 2027 <1% ▼ 17 J.D. Vance <1% ▼ 1 Marco Rubio <1% ▼ 17 17 more Scott Bessent <1% ▼ 2 Pete Hegseth <1% ▼ 33 Doug Burgum <1% ▼ 2 Brooke Rollins <1% ▼ 1 Howard Lutnick <1% ▼ 2 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. <1% ▼ 3 Scott Turner <1% Sean Duffy <1% Chris Wright <1% ▼ 1 Linda McMahon <1% Doug Collins <1% Lee Zeldin <1% ▼ 1 Russell T. Vought <1% John Ratcliffe <1% Jamieson Greer <1% ▼ 1 Mike Waltz <1% ▼ 2 Kelly Loeffler <1% ▼ 1
Before Dec 1, 2026 21% ▼ 1 Before Feb 1, 2027 59% ▼ 1 Before Apr 1, 2027 71% ▼ 1 Before Jul 1, 2027 77% ▲ 1 4 more Before Oct 1, 2027 80% Before Jan 1, 2028 86% ▲ 3 Before Jul 1, 2028 88% ▲ 2 Before Jan 1, 2029 93% ▲ 3
October 31 <1% November 30 37% ▼ 2 December 31 73% ▼ 2
Kaitlan Collins >99% ▲ 17 Elizabeth Warren >99% ▲ 45 Ken Paxton >99% Chuck Schumer 100% ▲ 59 21 more Hillary Clinton 97% ▲ 64 Tucker Carlson 16% ▲ 5 Zohran Mamdani 6% ▼ 4 Candace Owens 6% Mark Carney 5% ▲ 1 Hakeem Jeffries 5% ▼ 4 Emmanuel Macron 5% J.B. Pritzker 4% Stephen Colbert 4% ▼ 1 Andy Burnham 3% ▼ 1 Vladimir Putin 2% ▲ 1 Elon Musk 2% Xi Jinping 2% ▲ 1 Masoud Pezeshkian 1% ▼ 1 Pope Leo XIV <1% ▼ 2 Benjamin Netanyahu <1% ▼ 4 J.D. Vance <1% ▼ 1 Friedrich Merz <1% ▼ 3 Kevin Warsh <1% ▼ 2 Mike Rogers <1% ▼ 5 Dario Amodei <1% ▼ 1
December 31, 2026 1% June 30, 2027 34% ▼ 3 December 31, 2027 57%
Before Jan 1, 2027 1% Before Feb 1, 2027 6% Before Mar 1, 2027 16% Before Apr 1, 2027 21% ▲ 1 6 more Before May 1, 2027 27% Before Jun 1, 2027 31% Before Jul 1, 2027 38% ▲ 1 Before Aug 1, 2027 43% ▼ 1 Before Oct 1, 2027 51% Before Jan 1, 2028 62% ▲ 1
October 31 >99% ▲ 47 November 30 >99% ▲ 16
Before Dec 1, 2026 23% ▼ 9 Before Jan 1, 2027 41% ▼ 9
4 12
Median 5.86 Middle half 5.42 – 7.11
Elon Musk 13% ▲ 3 Keonne Rodriguez 8% Steve Bannon 6% ▼ 1 Daniel Penny 5% 24 more Himself 4% ▼ 1 Roger Stone 4% Donald Brodie 4% ▼ 3 Ryan Salame 4% Eric Adams 4% Matt Gaetz 4% Stefan Brodie 4% Julian Assange 4% Young Thug 3% Edward Snowden 3% Elizabeth Holmes 3% Antoine Massey 3% Nicolas Maduro 3% Ghislaine Maxwell 3% Joe Exotic 3% Diddy 3% ▼ 1 Derek Chauvin 3% Roger Ver 3% Bob Menendez 2% Martin Shkreli 2% Sam Bankman-Fried 2% Hunter Biden 2% Andrew Tate 2% Do Kwon 1%
Before Apr 1, 2027 90% ▲ 5 Before Jul 1, 2027 91% ▲ 4 Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use . How to use Predictions