Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Polymarket Politics › Trump administration Closes Dec 31 · $19K today · $2.3M traded · $578K at stake · prices read 5 min ago

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The odds

37%chance▼ 7

How the odds have moved

Yes: 28% on Oct 20, 37% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 7, 11 PM ET32% → 38%
  2. Nov 4, 11 PM ET43% → 49%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Yes 37% ▼ 7 36¢ 38¢ $2.63 $2.3M

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth

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37%Pete Hegseth
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  • Will Scharf30%▼ 12
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Politics › Trump administration

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

99%Susie Wiles
  • Susie Wiles99%▲ 75
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18 more
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  • Brooke Rollins<1%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick<1%▼ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%▼ 3
  • Scott Turner<1%
  • Sean Duffy<1%
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  • Linda McMahon<1%
  • Doug Collins<1%
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  • John Ratcliffe<1%
  • Jamieson Greer<1%▼ 1
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  • Kelly Loeffler<1%▼ 1

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