Brazil presidential runoff: Lula margin of victory (Oct 25, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closed Oct 25 · $10.6K today · $23.4K traded · $10.4K at stake

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Settled Between 3% and 5%

The last odds before it closed

3.99%median
  • ✓ Lula da Silva, ≥1%99%▲ 85
  • ✓ Lula da Silva, ≥3%98%▲ 93
  • Lula da Silva, ≥5%2%▼ 2
  • Lula da Silva, ≥7%2%
  • Lula da Silva, ≥9%2%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Last odds Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
✓ Lula da Silva, ≥1% 99% 15.5K
✓ Lula da Silva, ≥3% 98% 7.9K
✗ Lula da Silva, ≥5% 2% 3.9K
✗ Lula da Silva, ≥7% 2% 30.5K
✗ Lula da Silva, ≥9% 2% 1.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Brazil, Lula

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  • Brazil voted to reelect Lula. Trump’s allies aren’t happy.POLITICO · 10 days agoPresident Donald Trump's allies have questioned the integrity of the Brazilian election. But if Trump were to intervene, it would threaten a fragile trade detente between the two countries. 10/26/2026 6:11 PM EDT President Donald Trump has…
  • The secret behind Lula’s win in Brazil may be an ‘army’ – of social media creatorsthe Guardian · 10 days agoThere are many explanations for the incumbent president’s win over Flávio Bolsonaro, but analysts – and he – point to reinvention of his social media use Four days before his stunning electoral comeback, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s…
  • Lefties’ cheers for Lula’s Brazil victory should leave US citizens very worriedNew York Post · 11 days agoThe left’s celebration of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva’s reelection victory is more reason to worry about Democrats sweeping next week’s US midterms. Literally minutes after Lula was declared the winner, partisan Justice…
  • Brazil's Lula wins 4th termThe Korea Times · 9 days agoDurable leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil — known as “Lula” — has won an unprecedented fourth term. He secured 51.8 percent in Sunday's runoff election, compared with 48.2 percent for opponent Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula's…
  • Brazil’s victory for the planet and democracy: seven lessons from Lula’s winthe Guardian · 11 days agoThe trouncing of the far right provides a playbook for social and environmental movements in other countries facing elections, including the US, Spain and FranceThank you, Brazil, for demonstrating how the far right can be trounced while…
  • Lula da Silva | The Pele of Brazil’s politicsThe Hindu · 9 days agoThe left-wing leader’s victory in Brazil, after finishing second in the first round, reflects the deep roots of the Workers’ Party, which built its support base through resistance to the military dictatorship in the early 1980s, as well as…
  • Brazil’s electoral phenomenon Lula stages unprecedented comebackThe Irish Times · 10 days agoAlready the greatest electoral phenomenon in his country’s history, Brazil’s president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva saved his best for last. Just two days shy of his 81st birthday, seeking a fourth mandate in his seventh presidential…
  • Brazil's Lula da Silva wins fourth term, beating conservative challengerJust The News · 10 days agoLula's challenger, conservative Flávio Bolsonaro, refused to concede and asked for the results to be annulled. Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was reelected Sunday with 51.8% of the vote. Lula's challenger, conservative Flávio…
  • Lula defeats pro-Israel challenger Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil electionsMiddle East Eye · 10 days agoLula won the tight race by 51.78 percent of valid votes against 48.22 percent for Bolsonaro, according to Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Heavy rain and technical issues had affected voting across the vast Latin American nation…
  • BBC Audio | Learning English from the News | Lula wins Brazil electionBBC News · 12 days agoMany surprised as Lula wins Brazilian presidential election again Learning English from the News Lula wins Brazil election Available for over a year Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, better known as Lula, a left-wing candidate in Brazil, has been…
  • Brazil's Lula clinches poll victory, Bolsonaro seeks to annul electionThe Daily Star · 10 days agoBrazil's leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva pulled off a dramatic comeback on Sunday as he clinched a re-election victory, but his rival Flavio Bolsonaro refused to accept the loss and said he would seek to annul the vote. With…
  • U.S. Embassy Report Recognizes Lula's Victory in Brazilian Run-offteleSURenglish · 10 days agoOctober 30, 2026 Hour: 5:18 pm The document sent on Monday states that the election unfolded in a mostly peaceful setting, despite mobility and public transport disruptions in the south and northeast of the country. The findings carry…

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions